<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672006000400015</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La sincronización de los ciclos económicos de México y Estados Unidos]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The Synchronization of the Economic Cycles of Mexico and the Unites States]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mejía Reyes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pablo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gutiérrez Alva]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Elías Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Farías Silva]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Claudia Adriana]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México Facultad de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Banco de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2006</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2006</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>65</volume>
<numero>258</numero>
<fpage>15</fpage>
<lpage>45</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672006000400015&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672006000400015&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672006000400015&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: En este documento se analiza el grado de sincronización de la producción de las grandes divisiones de la producción industrial y de las divisiones y ramas de la producción manufacturera con los ciclos económicos de Estados Unidos para el periodo 1980-2003. Se aplica la popular metodología de los ciclos de crecimiento propuesta por Kydland y Prescott (1990) para submuestras de cinco años que se desplazan en el tiempo, de modo que al final obtenemos una serie de coeficientes de correlación que nos indican la evolución de la asociación entre las variables correspondientes. Entre los resultados más importantes se encuentran los siguientes: 1) la sincronización entre las actividades productivas de México y el ciclo estadounidense se ha incrementado en el marco del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN), sobre todo en el nivel agregado; 2) un número sustancialmente mayor (que el periodo previo) de ramas productivas son contemporáneas o siguen al ciclo estadounidense con grados de asociación que tienden a estabilizarse en un nivel moderado; 3) la generación de productos metálicos, maquinaria y equipo es la división con un mayor grado de sincronización con el exterior, lo cual sugiere que factores como el comercio intraindustrial (y los esquemas de producción compartida) y la inversión extranjera (con su experiencia en los mercados internacionales) son importantes mecanismos de transmisión de las fluctuaciones cíclicas entre países.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This paper analyses the degree of synchronization between the US business cycles and sector industrial and manufacturing production of Mexico over the period 1980-2003. We apply the popular methodology introduced by Kydland and Prescott (1990) to five-year rolling windows, so that at the end we obtain a series of correlation coefficients which gives information about the evolution of such synchronisation. Some important findings of this paper are: 1) the synchronization between the US business cycle and the specific cycles of the Mexican sector production has increased in the context of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), especially in the aggregate; 2) the number of productive activities that are contemporaneous or that follow the us business cycle has increased substantially (compared to that of the previous period), exhibiting degrees of correlation which stabilise on mild levels; 3) the production of metallic products, machinery and equipment shows the greatest synchronisation to the US business cycle, which suggests that underlying factors such as intra-industry trade (and shared-production schemes) and foreign investment (and the implicit experience in the international markets) are important transmission mechanisms of cyclical fluctuations between countries.]]></p></abstract>
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