<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0016-7169</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Geofísica internacional]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Geofís. Intl]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0016-7169</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Geofísica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0016-71692017000100087</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.19155/geofint.2017.056.1.7</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico based on historical and instrumentally recorded seismicity]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bayona Viveros]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Antonio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Suárez Reynoso]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gerardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ordaz Schroeder]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mario Gustavo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="A01">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Geofísica ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ CDMX]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A02">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Ingeniería ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ CDMX]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A03">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Potsdam Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Germany</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>56</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>87</fpage>
<lpage>101</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0016-71692017000100087&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0016-71692017000100087&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0016-71692017000100087&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) is an active volcanic chain being deformed by an intra-arc extensional fault network. Although several crustal earthquakes with magnitude&gt;7 have originated in the TMVB since the 16th century, the background seismicity of this geological structure is very low and the region is usually considered of low seismic hazard. In this study, we present an updated probabilistic seismic hazard model of the TMVB. The seismicity catalog used here includes fortythree historically and instrumentally recorded earthquakes, from 1858 to 2014; five of these are large earthquakes that occurred in the TMVB during the XIXth century. Due to the lack of a statically representative sample, we propose, in a qualitative manner, the seismicity catalog is complete for M&#8805;4 since 1964 and for M&#8805;6 since 1858. Moreover, we introduce three different earthquake frequency-magnitude relations. The first one is a conventional Gutenberg Richter fit of the distribution of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes data. The other two are non-conventional, semi-parametric approaches that integrate the historical and the instrumental data to determine seismicity rates in the region. Our preferred model (seismicity model B) fits separately the instrumental and the historical data and merge the two fits into one curve. A uniform seismic hazard (USH) of the TMVB for a return period of 500 years was calculated considering three major sources of earthquakes: 1) Subduction thrust-faulting events in the Middle American Trench (MAT); 2) Earthquakes within the subducted Cocos plate and, 3) Shallow crustal earthquakes in the TMVB. According to the seismicity model B, the average recurrence time of a M&#8805;7 earthquake on the TMVB is approximately 150 years. In contrast, the recurrence time estimated from the instrumental catalog is 12,000 years. The results of this seismicity model, which is based on historical and instrumental data, agrees also with the return periods of prehistoric earthquakes, estimated for short segments of the fault system in the TMVB in paleoseismological studies. When comparing the results of our preferred seismicity model, the PGA estimated using only the instrumental seismicity are 18 to 56% smaller than those predicted by the model using the historical catalog.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: La Faja Volcánica Transmexicana (FVTM) esuna cadena volcánica activa que se deforma por una red de fallas extensionales intraarco. Aunque varios sismos corticales con magnitud&gt;7 se han originado en la FVTM desde el siglo XVI, la sismicidad de fondo de esta estructura geológica es muy baja y la región es considerada, tradicionalmente, como de peligro sísmico bajo. En este estudio, presentamos un modelo probabilístico actualizado de la FVTM. El catálogo de sismicidad empleado incluye cuarenta y tres sismos registrados histórica e instrumentalmente desde 1858 hasta 2014; 5 de los cuales, son eventos de magnitud considerable ocurridos en la FVTM a lo largo del siglo XIX. Debido a la falta de una muestra estadísticamente representativa, proponemos, de manera cualititativa, que dicho catálogo es completo para magnitudes M&#8805;4 desde 1964 y, para magnitudes M&#8805;6; desde 1858. De igual modo, introducimos tres diferentes relaciones de magnitud-frecuencia entre eventos. La primera, es una relación convencional Gutenberg-Richter que ajusta la distribución de sismos registrados de manera instrumental. Las dos restantes, son aproximaciones semiparamétricas que integran datos históricos e instrumentados para determinar tasas de sismicidad en la región. Nuestro modelo preferido (modelo de sismicidad B) ajusta la distribución de datos históricos e instrumentados de manera independiente y fusiona ambos ajustes en una sola curva. Por otro lado, presentamos un mapa de peligro uniforme (USH) de la FVTM para un periodo de retorno de 500 años que se obtiene considerando tres fuentes sísmicas principales: 1) Sismos de subducción con fallamiento inverso originados en la Trinchera Mesoamericana (MAT); sismos de profundidad intermedia generados dentro de la subyacente Placa de Cocos y 3) sismos de naturaleza cortical localizados en la FVTM. De acuerdo con el modelo de sismicidad B, el periodo promedio de recurrencia de sismos M&#8805;7 en la FVTM es, aproximadamente, 150 años. En contraste, el periodo de recurrencia calculado usando exclusivamente datos instrumentados es de 12,000 años. Los resultados de este modelo de sismicidad, que considera datos históricos e instrumentales, parecen coincidir con los periodos de retorno de sismos prehistóricos estimados para pequeños segmentos del sistema de fallas de la FVTM reportados en diversos estudios paleosismológicos. Al comparar los resultados de nuestro modelo de sismicidad predilecto, los valores de PGA obtenidos a partir de datos de sismicidad instrumentada son entre 18 y 56% menores que aquéllos predichos por el modelo de sismicidad que también considera el catálogo de sismicidad histórica.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Faja Volcánica Transmexicana]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[catálogo de sismicidad histórica e instrumentada]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo de sismicidad semiparamétrico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[peligro sísmico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[historical and instrumental seismicity catalog]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[semi-parametric seismicity model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[seismic hazard]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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