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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2683-2852</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Carta económica regional]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Carta econ. reg.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2683-2852</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Económico Administrativas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2683-28522024000100059</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.32870/cer.v0i133.7891</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Producción, crecimiento económico y comercio internacional de México: un ensayo de diagnóstico y prospectiva]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Production, economic growth and international trade in Mexico: a diagnostic and prospective essay]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ruiz Porras]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Antonio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro Universitario de Ciencias Económico Administrativas Doctorado en Estudios Económicos ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>36</volume>
<numero>133</numero>
<fpage>59</fpage>
<lpage>72</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2683-28522024000100059&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2683-28522024000100059&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2683-28522024000100059&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: La vinculación entre el crecimiento económico y el comercio internacional es fundamental para entender el desarrollo económico de México. Por esta razón, analizo econométricamente series de tiempo trimestrales de producción, importaciones y exportaciones para el periodo 1993:Q1-2022:Q4. Utilizo los resultados del análisis para hacer un ejercicio de diagnóstico y prospectiva de la situación económica del país. Las conclusiones del ejercicio sugieren que: 1) México necesita fortalecer y hacer valer sus instituciones, leyes y acuerdos internacionales; 2) México debe afrontar los retos asociados a un crecimiento económico impulsado por la depreciación del dólar, los elevados diferenciales entre las tasas de interés internacionales y nacionales y la alta inflación interna, y 3) las políticas públicas vigentes podrían inducir un nuevo episodio de «enfermedad holandesa» en México.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Here I propose that the link between economic growth and international trade is essential to understand the economic development of Mexico. For this reason, here I analyze econometrically quarterly time-series of production, imports and exports for the period 1993:Q1-2022:Q4. I use the results of the analysis to carry out a diagnostic and prospective exercise of the country&#8217;s economic situation. The conclusions of the exercise suggest that: 1) Mexico needs to strengthen and enforce their national institutions, laws and international agreements; 2) Mexico must face the challenges associated with an economic growth driven by the depreciation of the dollar, the big differentials between international and national interest rates and high domestic inflation, and 3) current public policies could induce a new episode of the &#8220;Dutch disease&#8221; in Mexico.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[comercio internacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[desarrollo económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[prospectiva]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[international trade]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic development]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[prospective]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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