<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2683-2690</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[The Anáhuac journal]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[The Anáhuac j.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2683-2690</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Anáhuac del Sur S.C., Facultad de Economía y Negocios]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2683-26902024000200207</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.36105/theanahuacjour.2024v24n2.2515</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The Effects of Global Supply Chain Pressure on Sentiment, Expectation, and Uncertainty: A VAR Approach]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Los efectos de la presión de la cadena de suministro global sobre el sentimiento, las expectativas y la incertidumbre: un enfoque VAR]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Romero-Ramírez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Héctor]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>24</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2683-26902024000200207&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2683-26902024000200207&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2683-26902024000200207&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This paper studies the relationship of global supply chain pressure with consumer sentiment, inflation expectation, and monetary policy uncertainty in the United States. A sample from January 1998 to January 2024 is used, and this paper uses a Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach based on the method proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). The Granger causality test suggests that the predictions of inflation expectation based on its own past values and the past values of the global supply chain pressure are better predictions of inflation expectation than just using the past observations of inflation expectation. In contrast, Impulse Response Functions suggest that surprise increases in global supply chain pressure lead to increased inflation expectation and monetary policy uncertainty; this shock lasts up to two years. Meanwhile, the Impulse Response Functions suggest that surprise increases in the global supply chain pressure decrease consumer sentiment (confidence), lasting up to two and a half years. Afterward, the impact converges back to zero. Additionally, the Variance Decomposition results suggest that by the final period, the impulses of the global supply chain pressure explain over 22%, 7%, and 44% of the variation of consumer sentiment, monetary policy uncertainty, and inflation expectation, respectively.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este trabajo estudia el vínculo entre la presión de la cadena de suministro global y el sentimiento del consumidor, las expectativas de inflación y la incertidumbre de la política monetaria en los Estados Unidos. Se emplea una muestra de enero de 1998 a enero de 2024, y el trabajo sigue un enfoque VAR (vectorial autorregresivo) basado en el método propuesto por Toda y Yamamoto (1995). La prueba de causalidad de Granger sugiere que las predicciones de la expectativa de inflación basadas en sus propios valores pasados y los valores pasados de la presión de la cadena de suministro global son mejores predicciones de la expectativa de inflación que el uso exclusivo de las observaciones pasadas de la expectativa de inflación. En contraste, las funciones de impulso respuesta sugieren que los aumentos sorpresivos en la presión de la cadena de suministro global conducen a aumentos de las expectativas de inflación y de la incertidumbre de la política monetaria; los efectos de este shock duran hasta dos años. Mientras tanto, las funciones de impulso respuesta sugieren que los aumentos sorpresivos en la presión de la cadena de suministro global disminuyen el sentimiento del consumidor (confianza), y estos efectos duran hasta dos años y medio. Después, el impacto converge de nuevo a cero. Además, los resultados de la descomposición de la varianza sugieren que, en el período final, los impulsos de la presión de la cadena de suministro global explican más del 22%, el 7% y el 44% de la variación del sentimiento del consumidor, la incertidumbre de la política monetaria y las expectativas de inflación, respectivamente.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Consumer]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[inflationary expectations]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[uncertainty]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[macroeconometric methods]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E210]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E310]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[D800]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C500]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[consumidor]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[expectativas inflacionarias]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[incertidumbre]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[métodos macroeconométricos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E210]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E310]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[D800]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C500]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
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