<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-8402</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ensayos. Revista de economía]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Ens. Rev. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-8402</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, a través de la Facultad de Economía con la colaboración del Centro de Investigaciones Económicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-84022016000200151</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Informalidad, productividad y crecimiento en México, 2000.Q2- 2014.Q4]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Informality, Productivity and Growth in Mexico, 2000.Q2-2014.Q4]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Loría]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aupart]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Malinalli]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Emmanuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNAM Facultad de Economía Centro de Modelística y Pronósticos Económicos]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Distrito Federal ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNAM Facultad de Economía Centro de Modelística y Pronósticos Económicos]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Distrito Federal ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNAM Facultad de Economía Centro de Modelística y Pronósticos Económicos]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Distrito Federal ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>35</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>151</fpage>
<lpage>174</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-84022016000200151&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-84022016000200151&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-84022016000200151&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El desmedido aumento del sector informal, tradicional válvula de escape del mercado laboral, ha condicionado un lento crecimiento de la economía mexicana desde la década de los ochenta. A partir de una lectura del modelo de Lewis (1954), proponemos que el crecimiento de la informalidad en México ha creado limitantes al crecimiento de largo plazo, mediante una sistemática reducción de la productividad factorial total. La estimación de un Vector de Corrección de Error VECM(4) aporta evidencia de la reducción de la productividad debido al crecimiento del sector informal, que asociado a un lento crecimiento hace que se perpetúe un círculo vicioso de la improductividad, muy difícil de romper.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstact The huge growth of the informal sector, the labor market relief valve, has conditioned the low Mexican economic growth since the early 1980´s. From a Lewis (1954) model´s review, we propose that the growth of informality has limited economic growth, through the systematically factorial productivity reduction. A VECM(4) supports evidence about the factorial productivity reduction by the informal sector growth, associated to slow Mexican economic growth to perpetuate the productivity vicious circle too hard to break.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[informalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[productividad factorial total]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[exogeneidad débil]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Vector de Corrección de Errores]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Informality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[total factor productivity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[weak exogeneity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Vector Error Correction]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Becker]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Economic Approach to Human Behavior]]></source>
<year>1968</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Chicago, USA ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[University of Chicago Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Banco Mundial</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Concept of Informal Sector]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco Mundial]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Best linear unbiased interpolation, distribution, and extrapolation of time series by related series]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chow]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Review of Economics and Statistics]]></source>
<year>1971</year>
<volume>53</volume>
<page-range>372-5</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Un modelo de bajo crecimiento: la informalidad]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cimoli]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Primi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pugno]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Revista de la CEPAL]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<numero>88</numero>
<issue>88</issue>
<page-range>89-107</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[De Soto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[El otro sendero]]></source>
<year>1986</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Lima, Perú ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Barranco]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Debraj]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Economía del desarrollo]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Barcelona, España ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Antoni Bosch editor]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Análisis del desempleo, la migración y la pobreza en México]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Figueroa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[O.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gonzáles]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pérez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Espinosa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Revista Mexicana de Negocios]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>16</volume>
<page-range>835-47</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Migration, unemployment and development: a two-sector analysis]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Harris]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Todaro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The American Economic Review]]></source>
<year>1970</year>
<volume>60</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>126-42</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>INEGI</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales de México: productividad total de los factores 1990-2011]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[INEGI]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>INEGI</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[INEGI]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>INEGI</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Productividad total de los factores modelo KLEMS Serie anual 1990 - 2011. Boletín de investigación núm. 02/13]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[INEGI]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Johansen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of economic dynamics and control]]></source>
<year>1988</year>
<volume>12</volume>
<page-range>231-54</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money data]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Johansen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Policy Modeling]]></source>
<year>1992</year>
<volume>14</volume>
<page-range>313-34</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Juselius]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The cointegrated VAR model: methodology and applications]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Oxford, England ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Oxford University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Krugman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The age of diminished expectations: US economic policy in the 1990s]]></source>
<year>1997</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Massachusetts, USA ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[MIT Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Choques macroeconómicos en la agricultura: Alguna evidencia para la economía argentina]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lanteri]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Investigación Económica]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>70</volume>
<page-range>75-100</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Levy]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes: Social Policy, Informality, and Economic Growth in Mexico]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Washington, D.C., USA ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Brookings Institution Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lewis]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Manchester School]]></source>
<year>1954</year>
<volume>22</volume>
<page-range>139-91</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A Random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Litterman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal Business and Economics Statistics]]></source>
<year>1983</year>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>169-73</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[La ley de Okun: una mirada de género para México 2000.II-2011.I]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Loría]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Libreros]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Investigación Económica]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>280</volume>
<page-range>121-40</page-range><publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Informality Revisited]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Maloney]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[World Development]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<volume>32</volume>
<numero>7</numero>
<issue>7</issue>
<page-range>1159-78</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Medición de la economía informal]]></article-title>
<collab>OIT</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Oficina Internacional del Trabajo]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Ginebra ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[OIT]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ochoa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Economía informal; evolución reciente y perspectivas]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México D.F., México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro de Estudios Sociales y de Opinión Pública]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B24">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Potential GNP: its measurement and significance]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Okun]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association]]></source>
<year>1962</year>
<numero>7</numero>
<issue>7</issue>
<page-range>89-104</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B25">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pagés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[La era de la productividad: cómo transformar las economías desde sus cimientos]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Washington, D.C., USA ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Inter-American Development Bank]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B26">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pesaran]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Smith]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Applied Econometrics]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>289-326</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B27">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Programa para la democratizar la Productividad. México]]></article-title>
<collab>Plan Nacional de Desarrollo</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público]]></source>
<year>2018</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[SHCP]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B28">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Romer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Macroeconomía avanzada]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<edition>Tercera</edition>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Madrid, España ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[McGraw-Hill]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B29">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ros]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Development theory and the economics of growth]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Michigan, USA ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[University of Michigan Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B30">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ros]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Algunas tesis equivocadas sobre el estancamiento económico de México]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Facultad de Economía, UNAM]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B31">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sala-i-Martin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[X.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Artadi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E. V.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bosch]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Antoni]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Apuntes de crecimiento económico]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Barcelona ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[España]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B32">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[El crecimiento explosivo de la economía informal]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Samaniego]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Economía UNAM]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>5</volume>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B33">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Smith]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Harrison]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[A drunk, her dog and a boyfriend: an illustration of multiple cointegration and error correction]]></source>
<year>1995</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Department of Economics and Operations Research, University of Canterbury]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
