<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-7678</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación administrativa]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Investig. adm.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-7678</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Comercio y Administración]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-76782024000100006</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.35426/iav53n133.06</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Predicción del ingreso de divisas por turismo internacional en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Currency Prediction Income from International Tourism in Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodriguez-Marin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mauro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Tecnológico de Monterrey  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Guadalajara ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>53</volume>
<numero>133</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-76782024000100006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-76782024000100006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-76782024000100006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El objetivo es comprender cómo el turismo internacional ha contribuido a la economía mexicana y predecir su desarrollo futuro, considerando el impacto de eventos globales y tendencias de viaje. Se emplea un método de investigación cuantitativo, utilizando el modelo ARIMA para analizar y proyectar ingresos por turismo internacional. Se analizan datos desde 2010 hasta 2023, obtenidos de BANXICO. Los resultados muestran un patrón estacional en los ingresos, con un crecimiento notable desde 2014 hasta antes de la pandemia. Se anticipa una recuperación significativa a partir de 2023, con un aumento del 17.4% en el primer semestre comparado con 2022. Los hallazgos indican que el modelo ARIMA (1,1,2) (1,1,0) es el más adecuado para predecir ingresos por turismo internacional en México. Se proyecta un crecimiento continuo en los ingresos de divisas hasta 2026. La originalidad de este estudio radica en su enfoque en el turismo internacional como una fuente clave de ingresos en divisas para México, utilizando un modelo predictivo avanzado y considerando el impacto de eventos globales recientes. Las limitaciones incluyen la incertidumbre inherente en las proyecciones a largo plazo y la dependencia de patrones y tendencias históricas, que pueden no capturar cambios estructurales futuros. Las conclusiones evidencian que el turismo internacional es un motor económico vital para México, con una tendencia de crecimiento sostenido. El modelo ARIMA proporciona una herramienta eficaz para predecir ingresos futuros, crucial para la planificación estratégica en el sector turístico. Sin embargo, es esencial considerar las limitaciones del modelo y la necesidad de actualizaciones periódicas para adaptarse a cambios en el entorno global.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The objective is to understand how international tourism has contributed to the Mexican economy and to predict its future development, considering the impact of global events and travel trends. A quantitative research method is employed, using the ARIMA model to analyze and project income from international tourism. Data from 2010 to 2023, obtained from BANXICO, are analyzed. The results show a seasonal pattern in income, with notable growth from 2014 until before the pandemic. A significant recovery is anticipated from 2023, with an increase of 17.4% in the first half compared to 2022. The findings indicate that the ARIMA (1,1,2) (1,1,0) model is the most suitable for predicting income from international tourism in Mexico. Continuous growth in foreign exchange income is projected until 2026. The originality of this study lies in its focus on international tourism as a key source of foreign exchange income for Mexico, using an advanced predictive model and considering the impact of recent global events. The limitations include the inherent uncertainty in long-term projections and the reliance on historical patterns and trends, which may not capture future structural changes. The conclusions show that international tourism is a vital economic engine for Mexico, with a sustained growth trend. The ARIMA model provides an effective tool for predicting future income, crucial for strategic planning in the tourism sector. However, it is essential to consider the limitations of the model and the need for periodic updates to adapt to changes in the global environment.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Turismo Internacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelo Predictivo ARIMA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Demanda]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[International Tourism]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Predictive Model ARIMA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Demand]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aguiló]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Determinants of the price of German tourist packages on the island of Mallorca]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Tourism Economics]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Akaike]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A new look at the statistical model identification]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control]]></source>
<year>1974</year>
<volume>19</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<issue>6</issue>
<page-range>716-23</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ascanio]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mendoza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[JL]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Evaluación de la demanda turística internacional hacia Venezuela]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Estudios y Perspectivas en Turismo]]></source>
<year>1996</year>
<volume>5</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Athanasopoulos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hyndman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Song]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The tourism forecasting competition]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[International Journal of Forecasting]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>27</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>822-44</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Box]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G. E. P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jenkins]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control]]></source>
<year>1970</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Holden Day]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chacaltana]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[El turismo en el Perú: Perspectivas de crecimiento y generación de empleo]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<numero>E12 O33</numero>
<issue>E12 O33</issue>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Oficina Internacional del Trabajo]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chatfield]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Xing]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The analysis of time series: An introduction with R]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[CRC Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Claveria]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[O.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Torra]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: Neural networks vs. time series models]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economic Modelling]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>36</volume>
<page-range>220-8</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Conde Gaxiola]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Análisis de la llegada de turistas internacionales a México]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Investigación Administrativa]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>111</volume>
<page-range>20-4</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>DATATUR</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Llegadas de Turistas por residencia]]></source>
<year></year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Esteban]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[El marketing turístico: La orientación de la actividad hacia el consumidor]]></source>
<year>1996</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Civitas]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fish]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gibbons]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Mexico's devaluations and changes in net foreign exchange receipts from tourism]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[International Journal of Hospitality Management]]></source>
<year>1991</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<page-range>73-80</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gardella]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aguayo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Impacto económico del turismo en el Mercosur y Chile (1990-2000)]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Estudios Económicos de Desarrollo Internacional]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<volume>2</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Xiao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Q.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chon]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[COVID-19 and China's hotel industry: Impacts, a disaster management framework, and post-pandemic agenda]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[International Journal of Hospitality Management]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>90</volume>
<page-range>102636</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jud]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G. D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Joseph]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[International demand for Latin American tourism]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Growth and Change]]></source>
<year>1974</year>
<volume>5</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>25-31</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Makoni]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mazuruse]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nyagadza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[International tourist arrivals modelling and forecasting: A case of Zimbabwe]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Sustainable Technology and Entrepreneurship]]></source>
<year>2023</year>
<volume>2</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>100027</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mishra]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P. K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Seasonality in tourism and forecasting foreign tourist arrivals in India]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Iranian Journal of Management Studies (IJMS)]]></source>
<year>2018</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>629-58</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mohamed]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bakar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Razali]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S. N. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mazlan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N. K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Idrus]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aleng]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yusof]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Tourism forecasting using box-Jenkins SARIMA and artificial neural network (ANN) models: Case for outbound and inbound tourist in Malaysia]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[AIP Conference Proceedings]]></source>
<year>2023</year>
<volume>2746</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[AIP Publishing]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ponterio]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Metodología en el Turismo]]></source>
<year>1991</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Trillas]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Porto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[El turismo como alternativa de crecimiento]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rivas-Tovar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Normas Apa]]></source>
<year>2023</year>
<edition>7ª</edition>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Robano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Determinantes del turismo receptivo en Uruguay]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ XVJornadas de Economía del Banco Central del Uruguay]]></conf-name>
<conf-loc> </conf-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodriguez-Marin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Demanda de turistas internacionales hacia México: Construcción de un modelo predictivo]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Contaduría y Administración]]></source>
<year>2023</year>
<volume>69</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B24">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sánchez López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Measuring the effect of the misery index on international tourist departures: Empirical evidence from Mexico]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economies]]></source>
<year>2022</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>81</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B25">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shumway]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Stoffer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[ARIMA models]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Time Series Analysis and Its Applications: With R Examples]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<page-range>75-163</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B26">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Song]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Witt]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: Modern econometric approaches]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Pergamon]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B27">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Song]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Li]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Tourism demand modelling and forecasting-A review of recent research]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Tourism Management]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>29</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>203-20</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B28">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Venables]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W. N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Smith]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The R development core team]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Introduction to R, Version 1(0)]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B29">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. C. W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ji]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[He]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tso]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K. F. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Forecasting tourist daily arrivals with a hybrid Sarima-Lstm approach]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Hospitality &amp; Tourism Research]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
<volume>45</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>52-67</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
