<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2025000300609</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20430/ete.v92i367.2619</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Panorama macroeconómico cubano en el primer cuarto del siglo XXI: un análisis desde la perspectiva cuantitativa]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Cuban macroeconomic view in the first quarter of the 21st century: An analysis from a quantitative perspective]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Imbernó Díaz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ana Laura]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hidalgo de los Santos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Vilma]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de La Habana Facultad de Economía Departamento de Macro-Microeconomía]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de La Habana Facultad de Economía Departamento de Macro-Microeconomía]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>92</volume>
<numero>367</numero>
<fpage>609</fpage>
<lpage>642</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2025000300609&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2025000300609&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2025000300609&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El entorno macroeconómico cubano durante las últimas tres décadas se ha caracterizado por alta vulnerabilidad a shocks externos, débil desempeño estructural, inflación galopante con cifras históricas en los últimos años, un conflicto entre crecimiento y balanza de pagos que deriva en tensiones de liquidez externa, explosión de déficit fiscal y volatilidad de la tasa de cambio. Todo esto ha conducido a que el contexto actual sea extremadamente complejo y ofrezca reducidos márgenes de maniobra para la implementación de un programa de estabilización macroeconómica. Este artículo realiza un diagnóstico del panorama macroeconómico actual, con énfasis en el dilema fiscal como factor medular del programa de estabilización, y aporta, mediante la modelación econométrica, el análisis de comportamiento y persistencia de los principales agregados macroeconómicos, así como la proyección de escenarios que esclarece el dilema tan complejo al que se enfrentan los hacedores de política económica.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The Cuban macroeconomic environment during the last three decades has been characterized by a high vulnerability to external shocks, weak structural performance, rampant inflation with historical figures in recent years, the conflict between growth and balance of payments that leads to external liquidity tensions, the explosion of fiscal deficit, and volatility of the exchange rate. All these have led to an extremely complex current context that offers little room for maneuvering to implement a macroeconomic stabilization agenda. This article diagnoses the current macroeconomic horizon, by emphasizing the fiscal dilemma as a core factor of the stabilization program, and provides, through econometric modeling, the analysis of the behavior and persistence of the main macroeconomic aggregates, as well as the projection of scenarios that clarify the complex dilemma faced by economic policymakers.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[análisis de escenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[dilema fiscal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estabilización macroeconómica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[VAR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Scenario analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[fiscal dilemma]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[macroeconomic stabilization]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[VAR]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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