<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2021000100201</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20430/ete.v88i349.1002</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Tasa de interés neutral y política monetaria para México, 2020-2024]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Neutral interest rate and monetary policy for Mexico, 2020-2024]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sánchez Vargas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Armando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez Ventura]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Débora]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López-Herrera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNAM Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNAM Facultad de Contaduría y Administración División de Investigación]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>88</volume>
<numero>349</numero>
<fpage>201</fpage>
<lpage>218</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2021000100201&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2021000100201&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2021000100201&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Debido a la incertidumbre al respecto, en este artículo se analiza cuál podría ser la postura de política monetaria más adecuada para México: una que mantenga el objetivo de inflación sin afectar negativamente el crecimiento del producto. Se estima el valor de la tasa de interés neutral en México para los próximos cinco años con base en la regla de Taylor y un modelo vectorial autorregresivo (VAR) cointegrado (CVAR). Los resultados sugieren que la tasa de política monetaria se encuentra por arriba de la tasa neutral de interés, lo que, combinado con el potencial recorte de tasas a escala internacional, podría conceder al banco central durante casi todo el sexenio grados de libertad para mantener su tasa por debajo del nivel actual; en el corto plazo se podría recortar la tasa de política monetaria actual en 25 puntos al menos sin arriesgar la convergencia a la meta de inflación.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Given the uncertainty in this regard, this paper analyzes the most appropriate monetary policy position for Mexico, which aims to maintain the inflation objective without negatively affecting product growth. The value of the neutral interest rate in Mexico for the next five years is estimated based on Taylor&#8217;s rule and a co-integrated vector autoregression (VAR) model (CVAR). The results suggest that the monetary policy rate is above the neutral interest rate, which, combined with the potential international rate cut, could grant the central bank for almost the entire six-year period a degree of freedom to maintain its rate below the current level; in the short term the current monetary policy rate could be cut by at least 25 points without risking convergence to the inflation target.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Neutral interest rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[monetary policy rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Taylor&#8217;s rule]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[CVAR models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E43]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E47]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E51]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E52]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E58]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E61]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tasa de interés neutral]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[política monetaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tasa de política monetaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[regla de Taylor]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos CVAR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E43]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E47]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E51]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E52]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E58]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E61]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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