<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2018000400703</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20430/ete.v85i340.699</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[México y el TLCAN: escenarios de política comercial. Simulaciones con un modelo de equilibrio general aplicado]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Mexico and NAFTA: trade policy scenarios. Simulations with an applied general equilibrium model]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dávila Flores]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sobarzo Fimbres]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Horacio Enrique]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valdés Ibarra]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Miriam]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Coahuila Centro de Investigaciones Socioeconómicas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,El Colegio de México Centro de Estudios Económicos ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Coahuila Centro de Investigaciones Socioeconómicas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>85</volume>
<numero>340</numero>
<fpage>703</fpage>
<lpage>744</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2018000400703&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2018000400703&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2018000400703&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Antecedentes: El desempeño de la estructura de la economía mexicana, especialmente la de su sector manufacturero, es muy dependiente del mercado norteamericano. Las dificultades del proceso de renegociación del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN) han alimentado la incertidumbre acerca del futuro de las relaciones comerciales entre los países participantes en el mismo. En estas circunstancias resulta indispensable evaluar los impactos potenciales sobre la economía mexicana de diferentes escenarios posibles de política comercial.  Metodología: Se emplea un modelo de equilibrio general aplicado (MEGA) como base de las estimaciones, el cual está sustentado en una matriz de contabilidad social (MCS), valuada a precios de mercado (2008). Se trata de la primera MCS con esta característica que se produce en México.  Resultados: En el modelo a corto plazo, en el cual se consideran únicamente los efectos de las variaciones esperadas en los aranceles, se observa un impacto reducido en el producto interno bruto (PIB) agregado y de mayor consideración en algunos sectores exportadores. En el modelo de largo plazo, que adicionalmente contempla una contracción en los montos de inversión extranjera directa (IED), las consecuencias serían de mayor magnitud, incluso a nivel global, con una caída superior a 3.5% en el PIB, una contracción más significativa en las exportaciones e impactos sectoriales considerables en las actividades productivas con mayor orientación al mercado externo. Estos impactos adversos se magnifican si México responde con la imposición de aranceles de nación más favorecida (NMF) a las importaciones provenientes de los Estados Unidos.  Conclusiones: Si se consideran únicamente las variaciones en los aranceles, la eventual cancelación del TLCAN tendría efectos económicos moderados sobre la economía mexicana, pues entrarían en vigencia los aranceles de NMF, acordados por cada país ante la OMC (Organización Mundial de Comercio), los cuales, en su mayoría, son reducidos. Por desgracia, un cambio de esta relevancia puede afectar sensiblemente los flujos de la inversión extranjera directa (IED), en cuyo caso las repercusiones serían de mayor envergadura.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Background: The performance of Mexico&#8217;s economic structure, especially in manufacturing sector, is highly dependent on the North American market. The complications in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) negotiation process have created a sense of uncertainty regarding the future of commercial relationship between the partners. In these circumstances, it is essential to evaluate the economic impacts of different trade policy scenarios in Mexico.  Methodology: An applied general equilibrium (AGE) model is used as the basis for the estimates. The model uses a Mexico social accounting matrix (SAM), valued at market prices (2008), which is the first SAM with this feature that is constructed for Mexico.  Results: In the short-term model, tariff variations have a reduced impact on aggregate gross domestic product (GDP), although a greater impact was observed for some export sectors. In the long-term model, besides the variation in tariffs, it is considered a contraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. In this model, the consequences would be greater, both in aggregate GDP, decreasing by 3.5 percent, as a significant contraction of exports and significant sectoral impacts in external market orientation activities. These adverse impacts are stronger when Mexico retaliate with most favored nations (MFN) tariffs on the imports from United States of America (USA).  Conclusions: Considering only tariff variations, the eventual cancellation of NAFTA would have moderate economic impacts on the Mexican economy, since the MFN tariff rates, agreed by the WTO (World Trade Organization) members, are, for the most part, small. Unfortunately, an event of this importance could result in a contraction of FDI flows, in which case the impact would be of greater magnitude.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[North American Free Trade Agreement]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[CGE modelling]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Tratado de Libre Comercio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos de equilibrio general aplicado]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sobarzo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Gains from NAFTA for the Mexican Economy]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kehoe]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kehoe]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Modeling North American Economic Integration]]></source>
<year>1995</year>
<page-range>91-115</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Boston ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Kluwer Academic Publishers]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
