<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2017000100237</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20430/ete.v84i333.268</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[El shock externo del Acuerdo Transatlántico para el Comercio y la Inversión para la manufactura mexicana. ¿Cómo afectaría a sus exportaciones hacia los Estados Unidos?]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The external shock of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment partnership on mexican manufacture: How would it affect its exports to the United States?]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Expósito García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alfonso]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Sevilla Departamento de Análisis Económico ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Spain</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>84</volume>
<numero>333</numero>
<fpage>237</fpage>
<lpage>254</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2017000100237&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2017000100237&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2017000100237&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen:  Antecedentes:  La creación de la Asociación Transatlántica para el Comercio y la Inversión (TTIP, por sus siglas en inglés) que actualmente negocian los Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea tendrá importantes repercusiones en el comercio mundial, especialmente para aquellas economías con una elevada dependencia comercial de alguno de los bloques firmantes, como es el caso de México.  Métodos:  Este trabajo analiza los efectos de este acuerdo comercial para las exportaciones de los sectores manufactureros mexicanos dirigidas a los Estados Unidos por medio de un modelo múltiple de ecuaciones gravitatorias en dos posibles escenarios, ambicioso y limitado.  Resultados:  Los resultados muestran una caída significativa de las exportaciones manufactureras de México y un debilitamiento de su posición en las cadenas globales de valor, especialmente en aquellos sectores donde la Unión Europea presenta ventajas competitivas en su comercio con los Estados Unidos. Asimismo, los resultados muestran que los efectos de desviación de comercio se vivirían especialmente en aquellas industrias con una elevada dependencia de sus exportaciones con el mercado estadunidense, de entre las que destacan la maquinaria y los equipos de transporte.  Conclusiones:  La actualización de los acuerdos que México tiene con los Estados Unidos y con la Unión Europea podría mitigar los potenciales efectos negativos del TTIP, siempre y cuando ésta suponga una aproximación a los estándares de las exportaciones europeas acordados en este nuevo acuerdo.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract:  Background:  The creation of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), that the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) are currently negotiating, will have a major impact on world trade, especially in third-country economies with greater dependence on any of the signatoring countries, as it is the case of Mexico.  Methods:  This paper analyses the effects of this trade agreement on the exports of the Mexican manufacturing sectors through the application of a model of multiple gravity equations in two possible scenarios (ambitious and limited TTIP).  Results:  Findings show significant drops of Mexican manufacturing exports and a weakening of its role in the global value chains, especially in those sectors where the EU has significant competitive advantages in its trade with the US. Furthermore, the estimated impacts show that the trade diversion effects would be particularly relevant in those industries with high dependence on exports to the US market, such as machinery and transport equipments.  Conclusions:  The update of the trade agreements between Mexico and the US and the EU could mitigate the potential negative effects of TTIP, provided that this update leads to an approximation to the standards set for European exports in this new agreement.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[trade agreements]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[trade diversion]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[manufactures]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[United States.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[acuerdos comerciales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[desviación de comercio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[manufacturas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[los Estados Unidos]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aichele]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Felbermayr]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Heiland]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Múnich ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro para Estudios Económicos]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Trade Costs]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Anderson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[van Wincoop]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Economic Literature]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<volume>42</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>691-751</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Baldwin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Multilateralising 21st Century Regionalism]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Berden]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Francois]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Thelle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wymenga]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tamminen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Non-tariff Measures in EU-US Trade and Investment. An Economic Analysis]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Caliendo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Parro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Review of Economic Studies]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>82</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>1-44</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Centre for Economic Policy Research</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment. An Economic Assessment]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Londres ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro para la Investigación Política Económica]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Comisión Europea</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Impact Assessment of TTIP]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Design of International Trade Agreements: Introducing a New Database]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dür]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Baccini]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Elsig]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Review of International Organizations]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>9</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>353-75</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Ecorys</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Trade SIA on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the European Union and the United States of America, Final Report]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Non-Tariff Barriers, Integration, and the Trans-Atlantic Economy]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Egger]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Francois]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Manchin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nelson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Economic Policy]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>30</volume>
<numero>83</numero>
<issue>83</issue>
<page-range>539-84</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Felbermayr]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Heid]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lehwald]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): Who Benefits from a Free Trade Deal? Part 1: Macroeconomic Effects]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Washington D. C. ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Global Economic Dinamycs]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fontagne]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gourdon]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jean]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Transatlantic Trade: Whiter Partnership, Which Economic Consequences?]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[París ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[CEPII]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hamilton]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Geopolitics of TTIP: Repositioning the Transatlantic Relationship for a Changing World]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Washington D. C. ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Center for Transatlantic Relations]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Alternative Theories of Distribution]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kaldor]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Review of Economic Studies]]></source>
<year>1956</year>
<volume>23</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>83-100</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Oropeza García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[El Acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico (TPP); ¿bisagra o confrontación entre el Atlántico y el Pacífico?]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[IIJ]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[El superávit comercial de México con Estados Unidos]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortiz Wadgymar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Problemas del Desarrollo]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>164</volume>
<numero>42</numero>
<issue>42</issue>
<page-range>153-68</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pelkmans]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lejour]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Schrefler]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mustilli]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tumini]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Impact of TTIP: The Underlying Economic Model and Comparisons]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Bruselas ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[CEPS]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Plaisier]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mulder]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vermeulen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Berden]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Study on EU-US High Level Working Group]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Preztowitz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[El riesgo de México frente al TPP]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Oropeza García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[El Acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico (TPP); ¿bisagra o confrontación entre el Atlántico y el Pacífico?]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[IIJ]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Transatlantic Bloc of States and the Political Economy of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Serfati]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Work Organisation, Labour &amp; Globalisation]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>9</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>7-37</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Stiglitz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[El precio de la desigualdad]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Taurus]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Stoler]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pedersen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P. N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Herreros]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Negotiating Trade Agreements for the 21st Century]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Santiago de Chile ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[CEPAL]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Viner]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Custom Union Issue]]></source>
<year>1950</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Washington D. C. ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Carnegie Endowment for International Peace]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B24">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Viner]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[International Economics]]></source>
<year>1951</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Illinois ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Free Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
