<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2017000100005</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20430/ete.v84i333.261</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Uso de agregados monetarios como indicadores de la evolución futura de los precios al consumidor: crecimiento monetario y meta de inflación]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The use of monetary aggregates as indicators of the future evolution of consumer prices: Monetary growth and inflation target]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramos-Francia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Noriega]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Antonio E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez-Pérez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cid Alonso]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Banco de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>84</volume>
<numero>333</numero>
<fpage>5</fpage>
<lpage>70</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2017000100005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2017000100005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2017000100005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen:  Antecedentes Recientemente, los agregados monetarios han desempeñado un papel menor en las deliberaciones de política monetaria en la mayoría de los bancos centrales. Esto es debido a que los modelos utilizados se concentran en las desviaciones de la inflación respecto a un nivel de estado estacionario dado exógenamente. La cantidad de dinero en la economía determina el nivel de precios en el largo plazo, pero no necesariamente influye en las desviaciones respecto a dicho nivel. Por lo tanto, los agregados monetarios han perdido relevancia en el análisis de corto plazo.  Métodos: Se realiza un extenso análisis econométrico de la demanda de dinero a largo plazo para México utilizando el agregado monetario M1. Se estima la de-manda del agregado monetario M1 mediante un modelo autorregresivo de rezagos distribuidos, con datos trimestrales para México para el periodo 2001-2014. El modelo se somete a una variedad de pruebas de especificación y diagnóstico, además se realiza un profundo análisis de la estabilidad de los parámetros. Con base en dicha demanda se calculan dos indicadores de presiones inflacionarias: la brecha del dinero y el indicador m*.  Resultados: Este artículo muestra cómo se puede utilizar a los agregados monetarios como indicadores de presiones inflacionarias. Esto es posible ya que existe una relación a largo plazo entre dichos agregados y los precios. Específicamente, se obtienen dos indicadores. Por un lado, la brecha del dinero, la cual mide la desviación de M1 real de su relación con sus determinantes a largo plazo. Por otro lado, el indicador m* se basa en la estimación del índice de precios que es congruente con la cantidad de M1 en la economía, una vez que ésta se ajusta por la tendencia de largo plazo de sus determinantes tomando en cuenta sus coeficientes de largo plazo. Así, respecto a la tendencia a largo plazo de la inflación, el indicador m* sugiere que el crecimiento del dinero durante el régimen de metas de inflación: fue congruente con un importante esfuerzo de desinflación, y posteriormente converger a un crecimiento aproximado de 3%; esto es, hacia condiciones inflacionarias congruentes con la meta de inflación.  Conclusiones: La política monetaria ha sido congruente con el objetivo de inflación del Banco de México.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract:  Background: Recently, monetary aggregates have played a minor role in the deliberations of monetary policy in most central banks. This is because the models used are focused on deviations of inflation from a steady state level exogenously given. The quantity of money in the economy determines the price level in the long-run, but does not necessarily influence the deviations from that level. Therefore, monetary aggregates have lost importance in the short-run analysis.  Methods: An extensive econometric analysis of the long-run money demand is carried out for Mexico using the monetary aggregate M1. The demand for M1 monetary aggregate is estimated by an autoregressive distributed lag model, with quarterly data for Mexico for the period 2001-2014. The model is assessed with a variety of specification and diagnostics tests, furthermore, a thorough analysis of the stability of the parameters is performed. Based on such a demand two indicators of inflationary pressures are calculated: money gap and m* indicator.  Results: This article illustrates how to use monetary aggregates as indicators of inflationary pressures. This is possible since there is a long-run relationship between such aggregates and prices. Specifically, two indicators are obtained. On the one hand, the money gap, which measures deviations of real M1 from its relationship with its long-run determinants. On the other, the m* indicator is based on the estimation of the price index that is congruent with the quantity of M1 in the economy, once it is adjusted for the long-run trend of its determinants considering its long-run coefficients. Thus, with respect to the long-run inflation trend, the m* indicator suggests that the money growth during the inflation targeting regime was consistent with an important disinflation effort, and then converge to an approximate 3 percent growth; i. e., towards inflationary conditions consistent with the inflation target.  Conclusions: Monetary policy has been congruent with the inflation target of Banco de México.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[demanda por dinero]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[inflación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[brecha del dinero]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos autoregresivos de rezagos distribuidos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cointegración]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[general a específico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estabilidad/cambio estructural]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[money demand]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[inflation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[money gap]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[autoregressive distributed lag model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[cointegration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[general-to-specific]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[stability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[structural change]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Demand for Money in Open Economies]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arango]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nadiri]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. I.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Monetary Economics]]></source>
<year>1981</year>
<volume>7</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>69-83</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Demand for M1 in the U.S.A., 1960-1988]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Baba]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hendry]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Starr]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Review of Economic Studies]]></source>
<year>1992</year>
<volume>59</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>25-61</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Long-Run Elasticities Of The Demand For Money In Korea: Evidence From Cointegration Analysis]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bahmani-Oskooee]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rhee]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H. Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[International Economic Journal]]></source>
<year>1994</year>
<volume>2</volume>
<numero>8</numero>
<issue>8</issue>
<page-range>83-93</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Long Run Demand for Money in Hong Kong: An Application of ARDL Model]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bahmani-Oskooee]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ng]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. C. W.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[International Journal of Business and Economics]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<volume>1</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>147-55</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Banco Central Europeo</collab>
<source><![CDATA[The Monetary Policy of the ECB]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Banco Central Europeo</collab>
<source><![CDATA[The Monetary Policy of the ECB]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Banco de México</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Informe sobre la Inflación Octubre-Diciembre 2005 y Programa Monetario para 2006]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco de México]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Banco de México</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Informe sobre la Inflación Octubre-Diciembre 2006 y Programa Monetario para 2007]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco de México]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Banco de México</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Informe sobre la Inflación enero-marzo 2015]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco de México]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Banerjee]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dolado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Galbraith]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. W]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hendry]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. F]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Co-integration, Error-Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data. Advanced Texts in Econometrics]]></source>
<year>1993</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Nueva York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Oxford University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Benati]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Long Run Evidence on Money Growth and Inflation]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Fráncfort ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco Central Europeo]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Inflation Dynamics in Latin America]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Capistrán]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramos-Francia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Contemporary Economic Policy]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<volume>27</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>349-62</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cayen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gosselin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kozicki]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Otawa ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco de Canadá]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Currency Substitution and the Demand for Money in Mexico]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chau-Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Turner]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Applied Economics Letters]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>59-62</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A Time Series Approach to Test a Change in Inflation Persistence: The Mexican Experience]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chiquiar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Noriega]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramos-Francia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Applied Economics]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>42</volume>
<numero>24</numero>
<issue>24</issue>
<page-range>3 067-75</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Demand for Money in Mexico]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cuthbertson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Galindo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Manchester School]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<volume>67</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>154-66</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[De Santis]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Favero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Roffia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Euro Area Money Demand and International Portfolio Allocation. A Contribution to Assessing Risks to Price Stability]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Fráncfort ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco Central Europeo]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Doornik]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Autometrics]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Castle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shephard]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Nueva York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Oxford University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Doornik]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hendry]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. F.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[PcGive 12]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Londres ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Timberlake Consultants Limited]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ericsson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kamin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Constructive Data Mining: Modeling Argentine Broad Money Demand]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Is There a Role for Monetary Aggregates in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Estrella]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mishkin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Monetary Economics]]></source>
<year>1997</year>
<volume>40</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>279-304</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fajnzylber]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Remittances and Development: Lessons from Latin America]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Washington D. C. ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco Mundial]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Functional Equivalence between Liquidity Costs and the Utility of Money]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Feenstra]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Monetary Economics]]></source>
<year>1986</year>
<volume>17</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>271-91</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B24">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fisher]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Theory of Interest]]></source>
<year>1930</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Nueva York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Macmillan]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B25">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Friedman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Inflation Causes and Consequences]]></source>
<year>1963</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[India ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Asia Publishing House]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B26">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Partial Time Regressions as Compared with Individual Trends]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Frisch]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Waugh]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F. V.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Econometrica]]></source>
<year>1933</year>
<volume>1</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>387-401</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B27">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Galí]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle. An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Nueva Jersey ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Princeton University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B28">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Agregados Monetarios, Inflación y Actividad Económica en México]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Garcés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Estudios Económicos]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<volume>18</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>37-78</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B29">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Theory and Implications of Currency Substitution]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Girton]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Roper]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Money, Credit and Banking]]></source>
<year>1981</year>
<volume>13</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>12-30</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B30">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Demand for Money Revisited]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Goldfeld]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Brookings Papers on Economic Activity]]></source>
<year>1973</year>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>577-683</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B31">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Halman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Porter]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Small]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The American Economic Review]]></source>
<year>1991</year>
<volume>81</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>841-58</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B32">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hamilton]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Time Series Analysis]]></source>
<year>1994</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Nueva Jersey ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Princeton University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B33">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Some Tests for Parameter Constancy in Cointegrated VAR-Models]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hansen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Johansen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Econometrics Journal]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<volume>2</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>306-33</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B34">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hodrick]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Prescott]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Money, Credit and Banking]]></source>
<year>1997</year>
<volume>29</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>1-16</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B35">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated Vectors]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Johansen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control]]></source>
<year>1988</year>
<volume>12</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>231-54</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B36">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Juselius]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Nueva York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Oxford University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B37">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Can Currency Demand Be Stable Under a Financial Crisis? The Case of Mexico]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Khamis]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leone]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[IMF Staff Papers]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<volume>48</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>344-66</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B38">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kirchgassner]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wolters]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Role of Monetary Aggregates in the Policy Analysis of the Swiss National Bank]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Múnich ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[CESifo]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B39">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Cointegration in Frequency Domain]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Levy]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Time Series Analysis]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<volume>23</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>333-9</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B40">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lucas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The American Economic Review]]></source>
<year>1980</year>
<volume>70</volume>
<numero>5</numero>
<issue>5</issue>
<page-range>1 005-14</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B41">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Money Demand in the United States: A Quantitative Review]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lucas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. E. Jr.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy]]></source>
<year>1988</year>
<volume>29</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>137-68</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B42">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[McCallum]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B. T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nelson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Handbook of Monetary Economics]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>3</volume>
<page-range>97-153</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B43">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Some Monetary Facts]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[McCandless Jr]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G. T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Weber]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review]]></source>
<year>1995</year>
<volume>19</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>2-11</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B44">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Currency Substitution and Instability in the World Dollar Standard]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[McKinnon]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. I.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The American Economic Review]]></source>
<year>1982</year>
<volume>72</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>320-33</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B45">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Currency Substitution, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Monetary Independence]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Miles]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. A]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The American Economic Review]]></source>
<year>1978</year>
<volume>68</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>428-36</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B46">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Demanda por dinero en México: 1986-2010]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Noriega]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramos-Francia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez-Pérez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[El Trimestre Económico]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>LXXVIII</volume>
<numero>312</numero>
<issue>312</issue>
<page-range>699-749</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B47">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Noriega]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Capistrán]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramos-Francia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Empirical Economics]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>44</volume>
<page-range>1 243-65</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B48">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Testing for the Constancy of Parameters over Time]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nyblom]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of the American Statistical Association]]></source>
<year>1989</year>
<volume>84</volume>
<numero>405</numero>
<issue>405</issue>
<page-range>223-30</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B49">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[La demanda de dinero en México: primeras estimaciones]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortiz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Monetaria]]></source>
<year>1982</year>
<volume>5</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>37-82</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B50">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Currency Substitution in Mexico: The Dollarization Problem]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortiz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Money, Credit and Banking]]></source>
<year>1983</year>
<volume>15</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>174-85</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B51">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pesaran]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[An Autoregressive Distributed lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Strom]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Cambridge, Inglaterra ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Cambridge University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B52">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pesaran]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Smith]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Applied Econometrics]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>289-326</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B53">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Representative Household&#8217;s Demand for Money in a Cointegrated VAR Model]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pétursson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Econometrics Journal]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
<volume>3</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>162-76</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B54">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Currency Substitution in Argentina, Mexico, and Uruguay]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramirez-Rojas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C. L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[IMF Staff Papers]]></source>
<year>1985</year>
<volume>32</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>629-67</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B55">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramos-Francia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Demand for Money in an Unstable Economy. A Cointegration Approach for the Case of Mexico]]></source>
<year>1993</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro de Análisis de Investigación Económica]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B56">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rey]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Wyoming ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B57">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Reynard]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Money and the Great Disinflation]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Berna ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco Nacional de Suiza]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B58">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Maintaining Low Inflation: Money, Interest Rates, and Policy Stance]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Reynard]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Monetary Economics]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>54</volume>
<numero>5</numero>
<issue>5</issue>
<page-range>1 441-71</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B59">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Currency Substitution Hypothesis and Relative Money Demand in Mexico and Canada]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rogers]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Money, Credit and Banking]]></source>
<year>1992</year>
<volume>24</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>300-18</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B60">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Román-Aguilar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vela-Dib]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[La Demanda de Dinero en México]]></source>
<year>1996</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco de México]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B61">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Serletis]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Demand for Money. Theoretical and Empirical Approaches]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<edition>2ª</edition>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Suiza ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Springer]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B62">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Siklos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P. L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Taking Monetary Aggregates Seriously]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B63">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A Survey of Recent Empirical Money Demand Studies]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sriram]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[IMF Staff Papers]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<volume>47</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>334-65</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B64">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Svensson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L. E. O.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Inflation Targeting]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Friedman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Woodford]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Handbook of Monetary Economics]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>3B</volume>
<page-range>1 237-302</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Ámsterdam ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Elsevier]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B65">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Tale of Three Amigos: Remittances, Exchange Rates, and Money Demand in Mexico]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vargas-Silva]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Review of Development Economics]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<volume>13</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>1-14</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B66">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Woodford]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Money, Credit and Banking]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>40</volume>
<numero>8</numero>
<issue>8</issue>
<page-range>1 561-98</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
