<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2016000100127</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La demanda de importaciones y exportaciones de México en la era del TLCAN. Un enfoque de cointegración]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cermeño]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rodolfo S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rivera Ponce]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Huver]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas División de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Coordinación de Asesores del Presidente de la República  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>83</volume>
<numero>329</numero>
<fpage>127</fpage>
<lpage>147</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2016000100127&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2016000100127&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2016000100127&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Este artículo busca caracterizar los flujos de comercio internacional de México durante el periodo de vigencia del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN). Las ecuaciones de importaciones y exportaciones se basan en el modelo de bienes sustitutos imperfectos y son estimadas utilizando el enfoque de cointegración de Johansen, con datos mensuales para el periodo 1994-2014. De esta manera, se encuentra que todas las variables pueden describirse como procesos de tendencia estocástica y que existe una relación de cointegración para cada ecuación de comercio. En ambos casos, las elasticidades precio e ingreso de largo plazo estimadas son significativas y sus signos son consistentes con la teoría económica. En particular, ambos flujos de comercio son inelásticos respecto a los precios relativos, y parecen satisfacer la condición Marshall-Lerner. Por otra parte, las importaciones mexicanas son elásticas respecto al producto, lo cual es indicativo de la alta dependencia de insumos importados de la actividad económica mexicana. A diferencia de la literatura previa, se encuentra que las exportaciones son inelásticas respecto a la producción industrial de los Estados Unidos en este periodo, lo cual implica una mayor estabilidad de éstas ante fluctuaciones en el desempeño de la economía estadunidense.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: In this paper we attempt to characterize Mexico&#8217;s trade flows during the NAFTA era. The import and export equations are derived from the imperfect substitute goods model of trade and are estimated with monthly data for the period 1994-2014 using Johansen&#8217;s cointegration approach. We find that all variables can be described as processes with stochastic trends and that there exists one cointegration relation for each trade equation. In both cases, the estimated long run elasticities with respect to prices and income are statistically significant and consistent with economic theory. In particular, both trade flows are inelastic with respect to their respective relative prices although these findings are consistent with the Marshall-Lerner condition. Additionally, Mexican imports are elastic with respect to real aggregate production, a fact that confirms that Mexico&#8217;s economic growth is highly dependent on imported goods. Differently than other studies, we find that Mexican exports are inelastic to industrial production in USA during this period, which implies that they have become more stable against fluctuations in the neighbor&#8217;s economy.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[demanda por importaciones y exportaciones]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo de sustitutos imperfectos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[raíces unitarias]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cointegración]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[TLCAN]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[import and export demand]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[imperfect substitute goods model of trade]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[unit roots]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[cointegration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[NAFTA]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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