<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2015000100005</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Producción potencial y brecha de producción en Centroamérica, Panamá y la República Dominicana (CAPRD)]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Johnson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Christian A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Fondo Monetario Internacional  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Estados Unidos</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2015</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2015</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>82</volume>
<numero>325</numero>
<fpage>5</fpage>
<lpage>50</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2015000100005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2015000100005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2015000100005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: El producto potencial es un factor clave para el análisis de sustentabilidad de la deuda y para desarrollar estrategias de crecimiento. Sin embargo, es una variable inobservable. A través de tres metodologías (función de producción, cambio de régimen y estado-espacio), este documento calcula el potencial de producción en los países CAPRD (Centroamérica, Panamá y la República Dominicana) utilizando datos anuales. Los resultados principales son: i) el potencial de crecimiento de CAPRD es de alrededor de 4.4% mientras que la volatilidad de la brecha de producción asciende a 1.9% aproximadamente; ii) el país con mayor potencial de crecimiento es Panamá (6.5%), mientras que el país con menor crecimiento es El Salvador (2.6%); iii) el ciclo económico en CAPRD es de cerca de ocho años.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Potential Output is a key factor for debt sustainability analysis and for developing strategies for growth, but unfortunately it is an unobservable variable. Using three methodologies (production function, switching, and state-space), this paper computes potential output for CAPDR countries using annual data. Main findings are: i) CAPDR potential growth is about 4.4% while output gap volatility is about 1.9%; ii) the highest-potential growth country is Panama (6.5 percent) while the lowest-growth country is El Salvador (2.6 percent); iii) CAPDR business cycle is about eight years.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento potencial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[brecha de producción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[descomposición del crecimiento]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio de régimen]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo estado-espacio]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Elements of Statistical Computing: Numerical Computation]]></source>
<year>1988</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Nueva York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Chapman and Hall]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
