<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2012000200333</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Estacionariedad, cambios estructurales y crecimiento económico en México (1895-2008)]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Noriega]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Antonio E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez-Pérez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cid Alonso]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guanajuato  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Banco de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2012</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2012</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>79</volume>
<numero>314</numero>
<fpage>333</fpage>
<lpage>378</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2012000200333&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2012000200333&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2012000200333&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Este artículo estima que la evolución del producto real y per capita de México entre 1895 y 2008 se puede describir adecuadamente por medio de un modelo estacionario en tendencia, afectado por cuatro cambios estructurales, cuya ocurrencia coincide con cambios institucionales internos, guerras y crisis económicas y financieras. Estos cambios son modelados por funciones logísticas de transición suave, en las que los periodos de transición son estimados endógenamente. En términos de tasas de crecimiento, nuestros resultados indican que para el PIB real y PIB real per capita de México existen cuatro etapas de crecimiento estacionario separadas por tres periodos de transición. Por ejemplo, para el PIB real se identifican las siguientes etapas de crecimiento estacionario: 1895-1924, 1935-1952, 1956-1978 y 1989-2008, separadas por tres épocas de transición (1925-1934, 1953-1955 y 1979-1988).]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This paper shows that the evolution of the level of Mexico real and real per capita output between 1895 and 2008 can be adequately described through a trend stationary model, affected by 4 structural breaks, which ocurred at dates that seem to coincide with domestic institutional arrangements, wars, and financial and economic crises. These changes are modeled through logistic smooth transition functions, in which transition periods are endogenously estimated. In terms of growth rates, our results indicate that for Mexico real and real per capita GDP, there are four stationary growth paths, separated by three transition periods. For instance, for real GDP we identify the following stationary growth paths: 1895-1924, 1935-1952, 1956-1978, and 1989-2008, separated by three transition periods: 1925-1934, 1953-1955, and 1979-1988.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[producto interno bruto]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estacionariedad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[raíz unitaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio estructural]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[función logística]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[transición suave]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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