<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2011000400913</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Producto potencial, fuentes del crecimiento y productividad en la economía peruana (1950-2008)]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jiménez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Félix]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú Departamento de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Peru</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2011</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2011</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>78</volume>
<numero>312</numero>
<fpage>913</fpage>
<lpage>940</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2011000400913&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2011000400913&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2011000400913&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este artículo presenta un procedimiento de cálculo del producto potencial y de la productividad total de los factores (PTF), que luego es aplicado a la economía peruana. Asimismo, se estima el ciclo económico a partir del producto potencial y se muestra que la brecha del producto incluye tanto la brecha de la PTF como la brecha de desempleo (tasa natural menos la tasa observada de desempleo). También se compara el comportamiento de la productividad y las fuentes del crecimiento durante el periodo de sustitución de importaciones con el de la aplicación de las políticas neoliberales. Finalmente, se muestra que los cambios en la productividad están asociados a la evolución de la relación capital/trabajo y de la eficiencia de la inversión. La evidencia empírica muestra que en los pasados 25 años no hubo indicios de procesos de modernización con efectos en el conjunto de la economía peruana.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This paper presents a procedure for estimating potential output and the total factor productivity (TFP), to be applied to Peruvian economy. On the basis of potential output series the economic cycle is then calculated to demonstrate that the output gap includes the TFP gap and the unemployment gap (natural rate and actual rate on unemployment). Moreover, it contrasts the sources of growth and productivity behavior during the import substitution era and the period of neoliberal policies. On the other hand, it shows that productivity changes are associated to the evolution of capital labor ratio and efficiency of investment. The empirical evidence indicates that, in the last decades, there weren't modernization processes with significant impacts on the Peruvian economy as a whole.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[productividad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[producto potencial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[brecha del producto]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[capital]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[inversión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[empleo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[desempleo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Perú]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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