<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2010000200275</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Las expectativas macroeconómicas de los especialistas. Una evaluación de pronósticos de corto plazo en México]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Capistrán]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López-Moctezuma]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gabriel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Banco de México Dirección General de Investigación Económica ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2010</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2010</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>77</volume>
<numero>306</numero>
<fpage>275</fpage>
<lpage>312</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2010000200275&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2010000200275&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2010000200275&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Se analiza los pronósticos de inflación, tipo de cambio, tasa de interés y crecimiento del PIB para horizontes de corto plazo contenidos en la Encuesta sobre Expectativas de los Especialistas en Economía del Sector Privado que recaba mensualmente el Banco de México. El estudio se enfoca en el pronóstico de consenso para el periodo de enero de 1995 a abril de 2008. Se examina la eficiencia en el uso de información, así como el desempeño relativo de los pronósticos de la encuesta utilizando como referencia pronósticos sencillos de series de tiempo, macroeconómicos y financieros. Se encuentra que los pronósticos de consenso de los especialistas, en general, no superan pruebas de ausencia de sesgo, de ausencia de autocorrelación en exceso o de uso de información pública, lo que sugiere oportunidades para mejorar dichos pronósticos. Sin embargo, los pronósticos de consenso parecen ser, en general, más precisos que los pronósticos de referencia, aunque al analizar una mues tra que empieza en enero de 2002 se encuentra que la precisión relativa de los pronósticos de consenso disminuye respecto a la de pronósticos sencillos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This document analyzes inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and GDP growth forecasts from the monthly Survey of Professional Forecasters, maintained by Banco de Mexico. The study concentrates on the mean across forecasters for the period from January 1995 to April 2008. Their efficiency in the use of information is examined, as well as their relative performance using as benchmarks forecasts obtained from time-series, macroeconomic, and financial variables. In general, consensus forecasts do not pass tests of unbiasedness, lack of serial correlation, and efficient use of available information, suggesting opportunities to improve the quality of these forecasts. However, the forecasts seem to be, in general, more accurate than the benchmark forecasts, although this relative forecasting advantage appears to diminish in a sample that starts in January 2002.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[expectativas racionales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[capacidad de predicción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronósticos con horizontes móviles]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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