<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2010000100105</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Amenazas a la independencia del banco central y su efecto en la inflación]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vargas H.]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Hernando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Betancourt G.]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rocío]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Banco de la República de Colombia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Banco de la República de Colombia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2010</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2010</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>77</volume>
<numero>305</numero>
<fpage>105</fpage>
<lpage>128</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2010000100105&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2010000100105&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2010000100105&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: La falta de apoyo político para reducir la inflación y la existencia de graves amenazas a la independencia del banco central pueden inducir a una desinflación gradual por parte de un banco central comprometido. Dos hechos observados en Colombia, un proceso de desinflación gradual y las repetidas amenazas a la independencia del banco central por parte del gobierno y del Congreso, serán analizados a partir de un modelo teórico de dos periodos. El modelo está basado en el supuesto de que el banco central es independiente y se compromete con la meta de inflación anunciada, a la vez que las autoridades buscan una solución discrecional e intentan eliminar la independencia del banco si la meta difiere de dicha solución. Estas amenazas afectan la capacidad del banco para comprometerse y dan por resultado un proceso de desinflación gradual con tasas de inflación más altas que las obtenidas en ausencia de dichas amenazas.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: The lack of political support for low inflation and the existence of serious threats of Central Bank Independence (CBI) removal may induce a gradual approach to disinflation by an independent and committed Central Bank (CB). A simple two-period model is used to link two facts observed in Colombia: the gradual disinflation process and the repeated threats to CBI coming from policymakers (Congress and the Government). The model is based on the assumption that, by itself, the CB is independent and directly able to commit to announced inflation targets. Nevertheless, policymakers want the discretionary solution and try to remove the independent and committed CB if the target differs from it. These external threats to the CBI hamper its ability to commit and result in a gradual path of disinflation that lies above the levels of inflation chosen by a committed CB in the absence of threats to its independence.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[independencia del banco central]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[amenazas a la IBC]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[metas de inflación]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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