<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2008000100109</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Análisis de las funciones de importación y exportación de México (1980-2000)]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Garcés Díaz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Daniel G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Banco de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2008</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2008</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>75</volume>
<numero>297</numero>
<fpage>109</fpage>
<lpage>141</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2008000100109&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2008000100109&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2008000100109&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: En este artículo se estudian las funciones de largo plazo y la dinámica del comercio exterior de México con datos agregados y desagregados. Las exportaciones totales dependen del índice de la producción industrial de los Estados Unidos y del tipo de cambio real. El nivel de las importaciones totales es función del índice de producción industrial de México, del nivel de las exportaciones totales y del tipo de cambio real. Un resultado importante es que casi todas las funciones, tanto de largo como de corto plazos, son estables para el periodo 1990-2000, mientras que ninguna lo es para toda la muestra. Esto sugiere que la apertura comercial de los años ochenta provocó un cambio estructural muy pronunciado en el comercio exterior mexicano y que el TLCAN es la continuación natural de dicho proceso.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This document studies the long-run functions and the adjustment dynamics for Mexican foreign trade with both aggregated and disaggregated data. Exports depend on the US index of industrial production and the real exchange rate. The level of imports is a func tion of the Mexican index of industrial production, the level of total exports and the real exchange rate. An important result is that almost all the estimated functions, for both the long and the short run, are stable for the 1990-2000 period while almost none of them is stable for the whole sample. This fact suggests that the opening up of the economy that took place during the eighties caused a pronounced structural change in the Mexican foreign trade and that NAFTA is the natural continuation of such a process.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cointegración]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[comercio exterior]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[TLCAN]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bleaney]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Michael]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Trade Reform, Macroeconomic Performance and Export Growth in Ten Latin American Countries, 1979-1995]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<volume>8</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Campos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ericsson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Constructive Data Mining: Modelling Consumer&#8217;s Expenditure in Venezuela]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[De Brouwer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gordon]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ericsson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Neil R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Modelling Inflation in Australia]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Business &amp; Economic Statistics]]></source>
<year>1998</year>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ericsson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Neil R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[MacKinnon]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[James G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Distributions of Error Correction Tests for Cointegration]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<numero>655</numero>
<issue>655</issue>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Garcés Díaz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[La relación entre los sectores manufactureros de México y Estados Unidos]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco de México]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gould]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[David M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Has NAFTA Changed North America Free Trade]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economic Review]]></source>
<year>1998</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gregory]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hansen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Residual-based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Economic]]></source>
<year>1996</year>
<volume>70</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>99-126</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gruben]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Was NAFTA Behind Mexica&#8217;s High Maquiladora Growth?]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economic and Financial Quarterly Review]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hansen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Business and Economic Statistics]]></source>
<year>1992</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<page-range>321-35</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Testing for Structural Change in Cointegrated Regression Models: Some Comparisons and Generalizations]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Econometric Reviews]]></source>
<year>1996</year>
<volume>15</volume>
<page-range>401-29</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hatanaka]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Time-Series-Based Econometrics]]></source>
<year>1996</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Oxford University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Johansen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated Vectors]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Economic and Control]]></source>
<year>1988</year>
<volume>12</volume>
<page-range>231-54</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Johansen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Juselius]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Testing Structural Hypothesis in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and UIP for the UK]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Econometrics]]></source>
<year>1992</year>
<volume>53</volume>
<page-range>211-44</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Krueger]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. O.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Under NAFTA]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<numero>7429</numero>
<issue>7429</issue>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[NBER]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kwiatkowski]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Phillips]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Schmidt]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Econometrics]]></source>
<year>1992</year>
<volume>54</volume>
<page-range>159-78</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Maddala]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kim]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change]]></source>
<year>1998</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Cambridge ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Cambridge University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Phillips]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P. C. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hansen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Bruce E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression With I(1) Processes]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Review of Economic Studies]]></source>
<year>1990</year>
<volume>57</volume>
<page-range>99-125</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Phillips]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P. C. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Quintos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Parameter Constancy in Cointegrating Regressions]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Empirical Economics]]></source>
<year>1993</year>
<volume>18</volume>
<page-range>675-706</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Cointegration]]></source>
<year>1994</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[St. Martin&#8217;s Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Reinhart]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[IMF Staff Papers]]></source>
<year>1995</year>
<volume>42</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rose]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Role of Exchange Rates in Popular Models of International Trade: Does the Marshall-Lerner Condition Hold?]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of International Economics]]></source>
<year>1991</year>
<volume>30</volume>
<page-range>301-16</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Santos-Paulino]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Thirlwall]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Exports, Imports and the Balance of Payments of Developing Countries]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[The Economic Journal]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Senhadji]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Time Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[IMF Staff Papers]]></source>
<year>1998</year>
<volume>45</volume>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B24">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Senhadji]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Montenegro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis]]></source>
<year>1998</year>
<numero>98/149</numero>
<issue>98/149</issue>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[IMF]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
