<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2005000400823</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20430/ete.v72i288.562</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Inflación y crecimiento. Un modelo de covarianza condicional para la Argentina]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lanteri]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luis N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="A">
<institution><![CDATA[,  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2005</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2005</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>72</volume>
<numero>288</numero>
<fpage>823</fpage>
<lpage>845</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2005000400823&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2005000400823&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2005000400823&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este trabajo analiza los efectos de la incertidumbre de las tasas de crecimiento del producto real (PIB real) y de las tasas de inflación en las tasas promedio de crecimiento del producto y de la inflación, empleando datos trimestrales de la Argentina, correspondientes a los tres decenios pasados. Para ello se utiliza un modelo GARCH-M, denominado VARMA, que permite probar las hipótesis de ausencia de asimetría y de diagonalidad del proceso de (varianzas) covarianza. Algunos de los resultados del trabajo sugieren que una mayor incertidumbre del crecimiento del producto estaría asociada con mayor crecimiento (teoría del motivo precautorio del ahorro), mientras que la mayor incertidumbre de la inflación reduciría el crecimiento económico, tal como afirman Okun (1971) y Friedman (1977). A su vez, tanto la inflación como el crecimiento del producto mostrarían una respuesta asimétrica significativa a los choques positivos y negativos de igual magnitud.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This paper shows the effects of uncertainty of economic growth and inflation on average rates of output growth and inflation, using quarterly data of Argentina, during the last three decades. The paper employs a GARCH-M model (VARMA model) that permits to test diagonality and symmetry relationships between the variables. The results suggest that increased growth uncertainty is associated with significantly higher average output growth (theory of precautionary savings), while higher inflation uncertainty is correlated with lower average output growth (Okun, 1971, and Friedman, 1977, arguments). Both inflation and economic growth show evidence of significant asymmetric response to positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[inflación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[incertidumbre]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[asimetría]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[no diagonalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[covarianza condicional]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ball]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Why Does High Inflation Raise Inflation Uncertainty]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Monetary Economics]]></source>
<year>1992</year>
<volume>29</volume>
<page-range>371-88</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Inflation and Economic Growth]]></source>
<year>1995</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[NBER WP]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Black]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Business Cycles and Equilibrium]]></source>
<year>1987</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Basil ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Blackwell]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bollerslev]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Econometrics]]></source>
<year>1986</year>
<volume>31</volume>
<page-range>307-27</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bollerslev]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Modelling the Coherence in Short-Run Nominal Exchange Rates: a Multivariate Generalized ARCH Approach]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Review of Economics and Statistics]]></source>
<year>1990</year>
<volume>72</volume>
<page-range>498-505</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bollerslev]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Engle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wooldridge]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-varying Covariances]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Political Economy]]></source>
<year>1988</year>
<volume>96</volume>
<page-range>116-31</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bollerslev]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wooldridge]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference in Dynamic Models with Time Varying Covariances]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Econometric Reviews]]></source>
<year>1992</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<page-range>143-72</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bollerslev]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chou]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kroner]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[ARCH Modelling in Finance: a Selective Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Econometrics]]></source>
<year>1992</year>
<volume>52</volume>
<page-range>5-59</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Brooks]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Henry]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[O.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Linear and non-linear Transmission of Equity Return Volatility: Evidence from the US, Japan and Australia]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economic Modelling]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
<volume>17</volume>
<page-range>495-513</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Brooks]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Henry]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[O.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Persand]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Effect of Asymmetries on Optimal Hedge Ratios]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Business]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<volume>75</volume>
<page-range>333-52</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Caporale]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[McKiernan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Relationship between Output Variability and Growth: Evidence from Post War UK Data]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Scottish Journal of Political Economy]]></source>
<year>1996</year>
<volume>43</volume>
<page-range>229-36</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Caporale]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[McKiernan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Fischer Black Hypothesis: some Time-Series Evidence]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Southern Economic Journal]]></source>
<year>1998</year>
<volume>64</volume>
<page-range>765-71</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cukierman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Central Bank Strategy, Credibility and Independence: Theory and Evidence]]></source>
<year>1992</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[The MIT Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cukierman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Meltzer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Econometrica]]></source>
<year>1986</year>
<volume>54</volume>
<page-range>1099-128</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Deveraux]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A Positive Theory of Inflation and Inflation Variance]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economic Inquiry]]></source>
<year>1989</year>
<volume>27</volume>
<page-range>105-16</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Engle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of U.K. Inflation]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Econometrica]]></source>
<year>1982</year>
<volume>50</volume>
<page-range>987-1008</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Engle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lilien]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Robins]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: the ARCH-M Model]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Econometrica]]></source>
<year>1987</year>
<volume>55</volume>
<page-range>391-407</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Engle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ng]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rothschild]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Asset Pricing with a Factor ARCH Covariance Structure: Empirical Estimates for Treasury Bills]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Econometrics]]></source>
<year>1990</year>
<volume>45</volume>
<page-range>213-38</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Engle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ng]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Finance]]></source>
<year>1993</year>
<volume>48</volume>
<page-range>1022-82</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Engle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kroner]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economic Theory]]></source>
<year>1995</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<page-range>122-50</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Friedman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Role of Monetary Policy]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[American Economic Review]]></source>
<year>1968</year>
<volume>58</volume>
<page-range>1-17</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Friedman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Nobel Lecture: inflation and Unemployment]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Political Economy]]></source>
<year>1977</year>
<volume>85</volume>
<page-range>451-72</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Glosten]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jagannathan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Runkle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Finance]]></source>
<year>1993</year>
<volume>48</volume>
<page-range>1779-801</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B24">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Grier]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tullock]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[An Empirical Analysis of Cross-national Economic Growth, 1951-1980]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Monetary Economics]]></source>
<year>1989</year>
<volume>24</volume>
<page-range>259-76</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B25">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Grier]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Perry]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the G7 Countries]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of International Money and Finance]]></source>
<year>1998</year>
<volume>17</volume>
<page-range>671-89</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B26">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Grier]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Perry]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Effects of Uncertainty on Macroeconomic Performance. Bivariate GARCH Evidence]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Applied Econometrics]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
<volume>15</volume>
<page-range>45-58</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B27">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Grier]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Henry]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[O.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Olekalns]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Effects of Uncertainty on Macroeconomic Performance: the Importance of the Conditional Covariance Model]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B28">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Grier]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hernández Trillo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Real Exchange Rate Process and its Real Effects: the Case of México and the USA]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Applied Econometrics]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<volume>7</volume>
<page-range>1-25</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B29">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Henry]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[O.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Olekalns]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Southern Economic Journal]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<volume>68</volume>
<page-range>683-92</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B30">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kormendi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Meguire]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Macroeconomic Determinants of Growth: cross-country Evidence]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Monetary Economics]]></source>
<year>1985</year>
<volume>16</volume>
<page-range>141-63</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B31">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kroner]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ng]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Review of Financial Studies]]></source>
<year>1998</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<page-range>817-44</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B32">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lucas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Models of Business Cycles]]></source>
<year>1987</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Oxford ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Blackwell]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B33">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Perry]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Turkish Inflation and Real Output Growth, 1963-2000]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Russian and East European Finance and Trade]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<volume>37</volume>
<page-range>31-46</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B34">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nelson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: a New Approach]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Econometrica]]></source>
<year>1991</year>
<volume>59</volume>
<page-range>347-70</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B35">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Okun]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Mirage of Steady Inflation]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[BPEA]]></source>
<year>1971</year>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>485-98</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B36">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramey]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramey]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Cross-country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[American Economic Review]]></source>
<year>1995</year>
<volume>85</volume>
<page-range>1138-51</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B37">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Weiss]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Asymptotic Theory for ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economic Theory]]></source>
<year>1986</year>
<volume>2</volume>
<page-range>107-31</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B38">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zakoian]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Threshold Heteroskedastic Models]]></source>
<year>1990</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[CREST]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
