<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-6655</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Análisis económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Anál. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-6655</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Azcapotzalco, División de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-66552026000100083</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2026v41n106/silva</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Is the brazilian exchange rate related to country risk? An uncovered interest parity approach]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[¿Está vinculado el tipo de cambio brasileño con el riesgo país? Un estudio basado en la paridad descubierta de las tasas de interés]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Menezes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alan Coaglio Silva]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tessmann]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mathias Schneid]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Magalhães]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luiz Augusto Ferreira]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Brazilian Institute of Education, Development and Research  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Brazil</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Brazilian Institute of Education, Development and Research  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Brazil</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Brazilian Institute of Education, Development and Research  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Brazil</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>41</volume>
<numero>106</numero>
<fpage>83</fpage>
<lpage>106</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-66552026000100083&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-66552026000100083&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-66552026000100083&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This paper analyzes the behavior of the nominal exchange rate between the Brazilian Real and the US Dollar by adapting the theoretical approach of uncovered interest parity to verify whether country risk influences exchange rate changes. For this purpose, ordinary least squares and vector autoregressive models are estimated considering data from 2012 to 2022. Impulse-response functions and variance flexibility were complementary methods to analyze the interaction between the variables. The results suggest that the nominal exchange rate in the period was influenced by its lags and by the country risk, represented by the EMBI+, and the CDS as in the robustness test, being fundamentally affected by the influence of retrospective and prospective expectations. The difference between domestic and foreign interest rates did not prove to be effective in influencing the behavior of the exchange rate. These findings are useful for the scientific literature investigating exchange rate movements in emerging markets by providing empirical evidence for the Brazilian real and policymakers and financial market agents.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este artículo analiza el comportamiento del tipo de cambio nominal entre el real brasileño y el dólar estadounidense adaptando el enfoque teórico de la paridad descubierta de intereses para verificar si el riesgo país influye en las variaciones del tipo de cambio. Para ello, se estiman modelos de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios y autorregresivos vectoriales considerando datos de 2012 a 2022. Las funciones de respuesta al impulso y la flexibilidad de la varianza fueron métodos complementarios para analizar la interacción entre las variables. Los resultados sugieren que el tipo de cambio nominal en el período se vio influido por sus retrasos y por el riesgo país, representado por el EMBI+ y el CDS, como en la prueba de robustez, viéndose afectado fundamentalmente por la influencia de las expectativas retrospectivas y prospectivas. La diferencia entre las tasas de interés nacionales y extranjeras no resultó ser eficaz para influir en el comportamiento del tipo de cambio. Estos hallazgos son útiles para la literatura científica que investiga los movimientos del tipo de cambio en los mercados emergentes, ya que proporcionan evidencia empírica para el real brasileño y los responsables de la política económica y los agentes del mercado financiero.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Nominal exchange rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Interest rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Risk]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Uncovered Interest Parity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[EMBI+]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Tipo de cambio nominal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Tipo de interés]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Riesgo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Paridad de intereses sin cobertura]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[EMBI+]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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