<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-6655</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Análisis económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Anál. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-6655</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Azcapotzalco, División de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-66552024000100085</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2024v39n100/lopez</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Analysis of the Mexican Peso-US Dollar exchange rate volatility through stochastic modeling]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Análisis de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio peso-dólar a través de modelos estocásticos]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López-Herrera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Facultad de Contaduría y Administración División de Investigación]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>39</volume>
<numero>100</numero>
<fpage>85</fpage>
<lpage>98</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-66552024000100085&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-66552024000100085&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-66552024000100085&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract We analize the Mexican peso-US dollar exchange parity the volatility using three models in order to evaluate the exchange rate risk performance and the these models capability of modeling such risk. The period June 21st, 2017 to June 21st, 2022 is marked by singular events that pressed this exchange rate parity, making it of great interest to study the tools that can be used to measure this uncertainty besides the study of the exchange rate uncertainty itself. The arrival of a left- wing politician to the presidency was an unprecedented event. At the beginning of 2020 the price war in the oil market and the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic had important effects in the world economy. Finally, the war in Ukraine added pressures to the international trade of raw materials, inducing an inflationary episode with bad expectations about the economic performance around the world. The exchange rate scenarios posed by the aforesaid events provide us with a natural context to test which of the posited volatility models offers a better fit. Unanimously, the results under the three models suggest that during the first year of the President López Obrador period the exchange rate uncertainty was reduced compared to previous levels, returning again to those minor levels after the forced closure of economic activities due to the emergence of COVID-19, even though the exchange fluctuation band has been slightly higher than before the pandemic and the war on East Europe.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Analizamos la volatilidad de la paridad cambiaria peso-dólar mexicano utilizando tres modelos con el fin de evaluar el desempeño del riesgo cambiario y la capacidad de estos modelos para modelar dicho riesgo. El periodo comprendido entre el 21 de junio de 2017 y el 21 de junio de 2022 está marcado por eventos singulares que presionaron esta paridad cambiaria, por lo que es de gran interés estudiar las herramientas que se pueden utilizar para medir esta incertidumbre además de estudiar la propia incertidumbre cambiaria. La llegada de un político de izquierda a la presidencia fue un hecho sin precedentes. A principios de 2020, la guerra de precios en el mercado petrolero y la aparición de la pandemia de COVID-19 tuvieron efectos importantes en la economía mundial. Finalmente, la guerra en Ucrania sumó presiones al comercio internacional de materias primas, induciendo un episodio inflacionario con malas expectativas sobre el desempeño económico en todo el mundo. Los escenarios cambiarios planteados por los eventos mencionados nos proporcionan un contexto natural para probar cuál de los modelos de volatilidad postulados ofrece un mejor ajuste. De manera unánime, los resultados bajo los tres modelos sugieren que durante el primer año del periodo del presidente López Obrador la incertidumbre cambiaria se redujo en comparación con niveles anteriores, regresando nuevamente a esos niveles menores tras el cierre forzoso de actividades económicas por la aparición del COVID-19, a pesar de que la banda de fluctuación cambiaria ha sido ligeramente superior a la anterior a la pandemia y la guerra en Europa del Este.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Foreign exchange]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexican peso]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Exchange rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Volatility models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Divisas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Peso mexicano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelos de volatilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Tipo de cambio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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