<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-6655</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Análisis económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Anál. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-6655</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Azcapotzalco, División de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-66552023000100039</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2022v38n97/valdes</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[El papel de las alertas tempranas en la identificación de las crisis cambiarias en México 1996-2022]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The role of early warnings in identifying currency crises in Mexico 1996-2022]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valdés Iglesias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Edson]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Veracruzana  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Xalapa-Enríquez Veracruz]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>38</volume>
<numero>97</numero>
<fpage>39</fpage>
<lpage>56</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-66552023000100039&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-66552023000100039&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-66552023000100039&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El objetivo general de este trabajo es analizar el papel que tienen los sistemas de alerta temprana para identificar las crisis cambiarias en México para el periodo 1996-2022. Esto fue calculado por medio del índice de presiones especulativas (ISP) que fue desarrollado en la década de los 90`s para predecir las disrupciones por las que atravesaron distintos países en vías de desarrollo. Se empleó un modelo de cambio de régimen de Markov y de máquinas de soporte vectorial (SVM) para capturar la dinámica del ISP. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que los modelos de aprendizaje supervisado presentan un mejor desempeño que los modelos de cambio de régimen como un sistema de alerta temprana, ya que los modelos SVM pueden capturar las señales enviadas por distintas variables macroeconómicas que permiten armar las guías a partir de la respuesta de los eventos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The main objective of this work is to examine the role of early warning systems to find currency crises in Mexico during the period 1996-2022. This is calculated by the index of speculative pressures (ISP) developed in the 90`s to predict disruptions that went through different developing countries. A Markov regime shift model and support vector machines (SVM) are used to capture the dynamics of the ISP. The results obtained suggests that supervised learning models has better a performance than regime change models as the early warning system, since SVM models can capture the signals sent by different macroeconomic variables, that can be used as guidelines to be take response to these events.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Crisis cambiaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tipo de cambio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[presiones especulativas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Markov&#8209;Switching]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[máquinas de soporte vectorial (SVM)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Currency crisis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[exchange rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[speculative pressures]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Markov&#8209;Switching]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Support Vector Machine (SVM)]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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