<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-6655</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Análisis económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Anál. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-6655</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Azcapotzalco, División de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-66552022000200027</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2022v37n95/rivero</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Análisis del ciclo económico en México, 2011-2020: una perspectiva de la Escuela Austriaca de Economía]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Analysis of the economic cycle in Mexico, 2011-2020: a perspective of the Austrian School of Economics]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rivero Mosqueda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fernando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,economo8184@yahoo.com  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>37</volume>
<numero>95</numero>
<fpage>27</fpage>
<lpage>46</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-66552022000200027&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-66552022000200027&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-66552022000200027&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El presente trabajo tiene el objetivo de proponer un análisis formal sobre el ciclo económico en México (entre los años 2011 a 2020) con el fin de ilustrar la explicación que ofrece el modelo del ciclo austriaco con respecto al origen de una recesión económica. Esto se realiza mediante una revisión de causalidad de Granger a través de un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR). Bajo la hipótesis de que toda intervención, tanto para expandir, como para contraer la base monetaria tiene un efecto causal sobre el diferencial de las tasas de interés (natural y de mercado), mismo que afecta el proceso productivo de la economía a través del índice de producción industrial, se obtienen resultados que validan dicho argumento y muestran un retraso de dos meses entre los movimientos de la base monetaria y el efecto sobre el diferencial de tasas de interés, cuyo impacto se observa de forma casi inmediata sobre la producción industrial del país.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This work has the objective to propose a mathematical analysis on the Mexican economic cycle (2011 to 2020) to illustrate the way Austrian economics, use to explain the economic cycles related to any recession. This is done by applying the Granger causality coefficient obtained through an autoregressive vector model (VAR). The former will be exposed under the hypothesies that any intervention over monetary base will impact the interest differential ratio (natural and market ratios), and this ratio will affect the economic productive process through the industrial production index. As a conclusion, this paper proves that for the period of study, in Mexico any movement in the monetary base will affect the ratio differential two months previously as an anticipation of future intervention, and at the same time this action will have an immediate impact on the industrial production index.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[macroeconomía]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Praxeología]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[interés walrasiano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[macroeconomics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Praxeology]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Walrasian interest]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[growth]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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