<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-6655</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Análisis económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Anál. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-6655</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Azcapotzalco, División de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-66552020000300229</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Valoración de un proyecto de recuperación mejorada de petróleo en México a través del método binomial]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Evaluation of an improved petroleum recovery project in Mexico through the binomial method]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Santiago-López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ana Laura]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arana-Coronado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. Jaime]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Matías-Pérez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Colegio de Postgraduados  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Colegio de Postgraduados  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Nuevo León]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>35</volume>
<numero>90</numero>
<fpage>229</fpage>
<lpage>253</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-66552020000300229&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-66552020000300229&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-66552020000300229&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN: En México se buscan nuevas técnicas para la extracción de las dos terceras partes de petróleo que no se extrae de manera convencional. Bajo un escenario caracterizado por ser flexible e incierto, en la presente investigación se lleva a cabo la valoración económica de un proyecto de recuperación mejorada de petróleo (EOR, por sus siglas en inglés) mediante la inyección de químicos surfactante, polímero y álcali (ASP por sus siglas en inglés) por dos métodos: tradicional y valoración de opciones reales. Adicionalmente se determina el nivel de incertidumbre de los flujos de ingreso neto (S0) mediante los métodos binomial y cadenas de Markov. Los resultados mostraron que en la valoración tradicional el VPN del proyecto resultó positiva ($ 120.157 mil millones de dólares) obtenida en un plazo máximo de operación de dieciséis años; sin embargo, bajo la valoración de la opción real el VPN modificado del proyecto    V P N -resultó mayor ($124.807 mil millones de dólares). En términos del valor de la opción europea de abandono, éste resultó mayor bajo las probabilidades de cadenas de Markov que bajo las probabilidades neutrales al riesgo. Al respecto, la prueba estadística de Wald-Wolfowitz mostró que los rendimientos del precio del petróleo deben ser modelados como una variable independiente por lo que el modelo binomial es el método correcto para el cálculo de las probabilidades. Se concluye que el método de valoración real de opciones es adecuado dada la existencia de flexibilidad e incertidumbre en el proyecto de inversión EOR- ASP, y que el valor de la opción se incrementa a medida que se presenta una mayor dispersión en los valores proyectados mediante el método binomial.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT: In Mexico, new techniques are being sought to extract the two third parts of oil that are not conventionally extracted. Under a scenario characterized by being flexible and uncertain, in the present investigation, the economic evaluation of an improved Oil Recovery project (EOR) is carried out by the injection of alkaline, surfactant and polymer chemicals (ASP) by two methods: traditional and real options valuation. Additionally, the uncertainty level of the net income flows (S0) is determined using the binomial methods and Markov chains. The results showed that the traditional assessment of the NPV of the project was positive ($ 120,157 billion dollars) obtained in a maximum term of operation of sixteen years; however, under the valuation of the real option, the modified NPV of the project    N P V - was higher ($ 124,807 billion dollars). In terms of the value of the European abandonment option; this was higher under the Markov chain probabilities than under the risk neutral probabilities. In this regard, the Wald-Wolfowitz statistical test showed that oil price returns should be modeled as an independent variable, therefore the binomial model is the correct method for calculating probabilities. It is concluded that the real options valuation method is adequate given the existence of flexibility and uncertainty in the EOR-ASP investment project, and that the value of the option increases as there is a greater dispersion in the values projected by the binomial method.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Método binominal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[volatilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cadenas de Markov]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[recuperación mejorada de petróleo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[factor de recuperación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[G11]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[G32]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Binomial method]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[volatility]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Markov chains]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[enhanced oil recovery]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[recovery factor]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[G11]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[G32]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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