<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-6655</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Análisis económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Anál. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-6655</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Azcapotzalco, División de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-66552020000100147</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Confianza de los inversionistas como determinante en el mercado accionario mexicano mediante un modelo TAR-EGARCH]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Investor confidence as a determinant in the Mexican stock market through a TAR-EGARCH model]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lorenzo-Valdes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Arturo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>35</volume>
<numero>88</numero>
<fpage>147</fpage>
<lpage>165</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-66552020000100147&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-66552020000100147&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-66552020000100147&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En este trabajo se aplica un modelo TAR-EGARCH con dos regímenes con el objetivo de estudiar efectos de sesgos psicológicos sobre el mercado de capitales. Cada régimen incluye la volatilidad implícita como indicador de miedo de inversionistas informados. La ecuación de la varianza condicional incluye factores que representan exceso de confianza de los inversionistas. Los resultados muestran que el exceso de confianza afecta la volatilidad y que la media condicional está determinada por el estado de confianza que tienen en la economía los inversionistas no informados. En cada régimen los rendimientos son afectados por el miedo de los inversionistas racionales.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In this work, a two regimes TAR-EGARCH model is applied in order to study the effects of psychological biases on the capital market. Implicit volatility is included in each regimen as an indicator of fear among informed investors. Conditional variance equation includes factors that represent investor&#8217;s overconfidence to determine if this emotional bias affects returns volatility. The results show that overconfidence is a determinant of volatility; and the regimes in the conditional mean, are determined by confidence that uninformed investors have of the economy. The fear of rational investors affects the stock returns in each regime.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Rendimientos accionarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Finanzas conductuales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[TAR-EGARCH]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Confianza.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Stock returns]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[behavioral finance]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[TAR-EGARCH]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[confidence]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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