<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-6655</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Análisis económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Anál. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-6655</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Azcapotzalco, División de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-66552018000300033</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The effects of oil prices on the spot exchange rate (MXN/USD) a VAR analysis for Mexico from 1991 to 2017]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Los efectos del precio del petróleo en el Tipo de cambio spot MXN/USD, un análisis VAR para México de 1991 a 2017]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sergio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Saucedo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Velasco]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Texas Rio Grande Valley Department of Economics and Finance ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Texas]]></addr-line>
<country>Unites States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Tecnológico de Monterrey  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Monterrey Nuevo Léon]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Texas at San Antonio Department of Economics ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[San Antonio Texas]]></addr-line>
<country>Unites States</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>33</volume>
<numero>84</numero>
<fpage>33</fpage>
<lpage>56</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-66552018000300033&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-66552018000300033&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-66552018000300033&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The Mexican economy has been historically dependent on oil. For this reason, our research investigates whether oil prices influence the Mexican peso exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. The database is made up of quarterly reports, taken from 1991 to 2017. A Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) was implemented, which included spot and future oil prices, money supply, and GDP growth rates for Mexico and the United States, and the nominal MXN/USD exchange rate. Results indicate that an increase/decrease in the oil spot price appreciates/ depreciates the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar. Results also indicate, however, that future oil prices do not have a statistically significant effect on the exchange rate. Further, the study found that in order to keep the Mexican peso to U.S. dollar exchange rate stable, the money supply and GDP growth rate in Mexico should be similar to those same variables in the United States. Lastly, the impulse response functions show that such effects disappear in the months following unexpected price shocks.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen La economía mexicana ha sido históricamente dependiente del petróleo, por tal motivo en este documento se estudian los efectos de cambios en el precio de este combustible en el tipo de cambio del peso mexicano frente al dólar. El análisis es trimestral y abarca de 1991 a 2017. Se utiliza un modelo de Vectores Autorregresivos (VAR), que incluye los precios spot y futuro del petróleo, las tasas de crecimiento de las ofertas monetarias y del PIB de México y Estados Unidos; así como el tipo de cambio nominal MXN/USD. Los resultados indican que aumentos/bajas en el precio spot del petróleo aprecian/deprecian el peso frente al dólar. Los resultados también indican que el precio futuro del petróleo no presenta un efecto estadísticamente significativo sobre el tipo de cambio. Adicionalmente, se encuentra que, para mantener la estabilidad del peso frente al dólar, la oferta monetaria y el PIB mexicanos deben de tener tasas de crecimiento parecidas a las de sus similares de Estados Unidos. Las funciones de impulso respuesta muestran que los efectos encontrados tienden a desaparecer con el tiempo.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[oil]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[exchange rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[money supply]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[depreciation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E31]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E43]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[F31]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[G19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Petróleo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Tipo de cambio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Oferta de dinero]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Depreciación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E31]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E43]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[F31]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[G19]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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