<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-5705</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Inter disciplina]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inter disciplina]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-5705</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Centro de Investigaciones Interdisciplinarias en Ciencias y Humanidades]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-57052021000300305</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/ceiich.24485705e.2021.25.79978</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelación de la mortalidad en México 2000-2015 utilizando distribuciones tipo fase]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Mortality modeling in Mexico 2000-2015 using phase type distributions]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Baltazar Larios]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fernado]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Esparza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luz Judith R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNAM Facultad de Ciencias ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Aguascalientes  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>9</volume>
<numero>25</numero>
<fpage>305</fpage>
<lpage>328</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-57052021000300305&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-57052021000300305&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-57052021000300305&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En este artículo se propone un modelo estocástico para construir tablas de mortalidad con experiencia mexicana de población y mortalidad 2000-2015, que combina la edad fisiológica de las personas con la probabilidad de sufrir incidentes que la alteren. En esta propuesta, el proceso de envejecimiento es modelado a través un proceso de saltos de Markov con espacio de estados finito y un único estado absorbente. Los estados no absorbentes representan las edades fisiológicas y el estado absorbente la muerte, por lo que el tiempo hasta la muerte se distribuye tipo fase. Un modelo como el propuesto permite incorporar diversos factores -genética, alimentación, ejercicio físico, accidentes, etc.- que afectan a la mortalidad, y de esta forma se obtienen mejores estimaciones de las probabilidades de muerte. Además, se presentan dos implementaciones del modelo para construir tablas de mortalidad, mismas que son comparadas con la mortalidad observada.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In this paper, we propose a stochastic model to construct mortality tables with Mexican experience of population and mortality of 2000-2015, this model combines the physiological age of people with the probability of suffering incidents that alter it. In this proposal, the aging process is modeled by a Markov jump process with finite state space and a single absorbing state. Non-absorbing states represent the physiological ages, and the absorbing state is the death, so the time of death follows a phase-type distribution. The proposed model allows the incorporation of different factors -genetics, diet, physical exercise, accidents, etc.- that affect the mortality, and thus, better estimates of the probabilities of death are obtained. Moreover, two implementations of the model are presented to construct mortality tables that are compared with the observed mortality data.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mortalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[proceso de envejecimiento]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[edad fisiológica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[distribuciones tipo fase]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[mortality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[aging process]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[physiological age]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[phase-type distributions]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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