<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-4911</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de opinión pública]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. opinión pública]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-4911</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-49112024000200049</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fcpys.24484911e.2024.37.88488</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Estimación de la intención de voto a nivel municipal: modelo MRP en las elecciones del Edomex 2023]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Estimated Voting Intention at the Municipal Level: MRP Model in the State of Mexico&#8217;s 2023 Elections]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pérez García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Daniel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Castro Cornejo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rodrigo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Áltica Research  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Massachusetts-Lowell  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>37</numero>
<fpage>49</fpage>
<lpage>69</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-49112024000200049&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-49112024000200049&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-49112024000200049&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este artículo estudia la campaña electoral de 2023 para elegir al gobernador del Estado de México, con un enfoque en la importancia del nivel local de las elecciones. A pesar de que las encuestas electorales tradicionales solo proporcionaron información a nivel estatal, este estudio ofrece estimaciones detalladas de la intención de voto por municipio por medio de un modelo MRP. Utilizando un modelo multinivel con post estratificación (MRP), se generaron estimados de la intención de voto para cada candidata en los 125 municipios del Edomex. Los resultados muestran una competencia heterogénea, reflejando cambios significativos en la dinámica electoral, particularmente en regiones históricamente dominadas por un partido político. Además, se evaluó la precisión del modelo en comparación con los resultados reales de la elección, demostrando una alta correlación. Se discute la relevancia de permitir la divulgación de encuestas en los días previos a la elección para mejorar la calidad de la información disponible para los votantes y candidatos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This article studies the 2023 gubernatorial campaign in State of Mexico, focusing on the importance of the local level in elections. Despite traditional electoral polls providing only state-level information, this study offers detailed estimates of voting intentions by municipality through an MRP model. Using a multilevel model with post-stratification (MRP), estimates of voting intentions were generated for each candidate in the 125 municipalities of the State of Mexico. The results show heterogeneous competition, reflecting significant changes in electoral dynamics, particularly in regions historically dominated by one political party. Additionally, the model&#8217;s accuracy was evaluated compared to actual election results, demonstrating a high correlation. The relevance of allowing the disclosure of surveys in the days leading up to the election to enhance the quality of information available to voters and candidates is discussed.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Elecciones]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[encuestas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[candidatas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[municipios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[preferencias electorales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo multinivel]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Elections]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[surveys]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[candidates]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[municipalities]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[electoral preferences]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[multilevel model]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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