<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-4911</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de opinión pública]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. opinión pública]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-4911</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-49112018000100095</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fcpys.24484911e.2018.24.61606</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Campañas y medios en democracias en desarrollo. Efectos del primer debate presidencial en la elección argentina de 2015]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Campaigns and Media in Developing Democracies. Effects of the First Presidential Debate in the 2015 Argentine Election]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lustig]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carola]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Olego]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Olego]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Tomás]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Católica de Argentina  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Argentina</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET)  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Argentina</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Buenos Aires  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Argentina</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>24</numero>
<fpage>95</fpage>
<lpage>111</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-49112018000100095&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-49112018000100095&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-49112018000100095&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Los estudios sobre los determinantes del voto son extensos. Las investigaciones previas sostienen que las campañas en los países desarrollados sirven para informar a los ciudadanos y establecer la agenda, pero que no tienen consecuencias sobre la decisión del voto. En el caso de las democracias en desarrollo, la literatura sostiene que, debido al sesgo de los medios de comunicación y la baja identificación con los partidos políticos, la exposición de los votantes a las campañas electorales puede tener fuertes efectos en su decisión. El presente artículo argumenta en esta dirección y muestra los efectos del debate televisivo ocurrido durante la campaña presidencial de 2015 en Argentina, en la intención de voto. La elección presidencial se dirimió después de una segunda vuelta competitiva y en un escenario de fuerte polarización. Los efectos del debate televisivo se midieron, en un primer momento, con base en una técnica especial de medición longitudinal continua otrackingde intención de voto a partir de 26 778 encuestas, realizadas a distintas personas desde el 27 de octubre hasta el 22 de noviembre de 2015. Este método permitió proyectar la intención de voto en el tiempo y analizar los efectos de diversos sucesos políticos. En un segundo momento, con sustento en una técnica no paramétrica de procesamiento previo de datos, se estimó un modelo que permitió realizar inferencias causales robustas para verificar el efecto del debate presidencial, tanto inmediatamente después del evento como también en el cierre de la campaña presidencial. El hallazgo principal es que, en contra de la hipótesis de los efectos mínimos, bajo determinadas condiciones, un debate presidencial televisivo tiene grandes consecuencias sobre la determinación del voto y puede revertir la tendencia de una elección. Los resultados son relevantes para comprender la influencia de los medios de comunicación en la deliberación democrática.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Studies on the determinants of voting are extensive. Previous investigations argue that campaigns in developed countries serve to inform citizens and set the agenda, but have no consequences on the decision of the vote. In the case of developing democracies, the literature argues that, due to media bias and low identification with political parties, the exposure of voters to electoral campaigns can have strong effects on their decision. This article argues in this direction and shows the effects of the televised debate that occurred during the presidential campaign of 2015 in Argentina, in the voting intentions. The presidential election was resolved after a competitive second round and in a scenario of strong polarization. The effects of the television debate were measured, at first, based on a special technique of continuous longitudinal measurement or tracking of intention to vote from 26 778 surveys, made to different people from October 27 to November 22 of 2015. This method allowed to project the voting intentions in time and analyze the effects of various political events. In a second moment, based on a nonparametric technique of prior data processing, a model was estimated that allowed robust causal inferences to verify the effect of the presidential debate, both immediately after the event and also at the close of the presidential campaign. The main finding is that, contrary to the hypothesis of minimal effects, under certain conditions, a televised presidential debate has great consequences on the determination of the vote and can reverse the tendency of an election. The results are relevant to understanding the influence of the media on democratic deliberation.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Campañas presidenciales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[debate televisivo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[elecciones argentinas en 2015]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[encuesta permanente]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[efectos de los medios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[intención de voto]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Presidential campaigns]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[television debate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Argentine elections 2015]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[permanent survey]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[media effects]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[voting intentions]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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