<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2395-8669</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Nóesis. Revista de ciencias sociales]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Nóesis, Rev. cienc. soc.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2395-8669</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez, Instituto de Ciencias Sociales y Administración]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2395-86692020000200079</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20983/noesis.2020.2.4</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Volatilidad en los precios de los cereales básicos y su impacto en la seguridad alimentaria. México, 1995-2018]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Price volatility in basic cereals and their impact in food security. Mexico, 1995-2018]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Granados Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[María Del Rosario]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Galán Figueroa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Javier]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leos Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Antonio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>29</volume>
<numero>58</numero>
<fpage>79</fpage>
<lpage>105</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2395-86692020000200079&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2395-86692020000200079&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2395-86692020000200079&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este documento analiza cómo la volatilidad en los precios de los granos básicos, arroz, maíz y trigo, influyen sobre la seguridad alimentaria. Para esto, se estudió el mercado de estos productos mediante los modelos de varianza condicional heterocedástica: simétricos y asimétricos. Entre los resultados, se encontró evidencia que, ante un escenario internacional volátil, los precios de granos básicos a nivel doméstico se elevarán, repercutiendo de manera negativa a toda la cadena de transformación mediante el incremento en los precios finales de los productos procesados. A nivel social, este escenario genera un efecto restricción sobre la población al reducir el acceso de los alimentos a menor precio.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This document analyzes how price volatility in basic grains, rice, corn and wheat, will impact over food security. For this purpose, the market of these cereals was approached through high-variance symmetric and asymmetric models. Findings show evidence that, before a volatile international scenario, basic grain prices in a domestic level will rise, negatively rebounding in the whole transformation chain through the increase of final prices in processed products. At a social level, this scenario generates a restrictive effect over population by reducing its access to lower price foods.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[seguridad alimentaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[precios agrícolas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[causalidad de Granger]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos GARCH]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Aliment security]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Agricultural prices]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Granger causality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[GARCH models]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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