<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-9028</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ecosistemas y recursos agropecuarios]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Ecosistemas y recur. agropecuarios]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-9028</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Juárez Autónoma de Tabasco, Dirección de Investigación y Posgrado]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-90282016000300307</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Análisis en series de tiempo para el pronóstico de sequía en la región noroeste del estado de Chihuahua]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Time series analysis to forecast drought in the northwest side of Chihuahua, Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villazón-Bustillos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Daniel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rubio-Arias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Héctor Osbaldo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortega-Gutiérrez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Ángel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rentería-Villalobos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Marusia]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González-Gurrola]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luis Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pinales-Munguia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Adán]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Chihuahua Chihuahua]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua Facultad de Ingeniería ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>3</volume>
<numero>9</numero>
<fpage>307</fpage>
<lpage>315</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-90282016000300307&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-90282016000300307&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-90282016000300307&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: En el 2011 se presentó una de las sequías más devastadoras en el norte de México que afectó de forma negativa las actividades del sector productivo. Por lo anterior, el objetivo del presente trabajo fue pronosticar el próximo evento de sequía en el noroeste del estado de Chihuahua, México. Se utilizó información de 40 años de cuatro estaciones meteorológicas. Se empleó el modelo ARIMA con estacionalidad de nueve años, y redes neuronales artificiales con 50 neuronas y 24 retardos. Se simuló la precipitación del 2000 al 2012 y se pronosticó del 2013 al 2024. Para la estación Abraham González se pronostica que para el 2019 y 2022 se presentará una precipitación menor a 200 mm. En tanto que en la estación Bachíniva para el 2019 se presentará una precipitación de 140 mm. Mientras que en la estación Cuauhtémoc se pronostica que para el 2020 se presente una precipitación de alrededor de 200 mm. Por su parte en la estación Namiquipa, se pronostica una precipitación cercana a los 160 mm para el 2018. Se concluye que entre el 2018 y 2019, ocurrirá una sequía de moderada a severa en la región noroeste del estado de Chihuahua.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: In 2011 it was presented one of the most devastating droughts in northern Mexico that seriously affected the activities of the productive sector. The aim of this study was to predict the next event of drought in the northwest region of the state of Chihuahua, Mexico. Information of 40 years was used in four weather stations. The ARIMA models with nine years seasonality were used, and artificial neural networks with 50 neurons and 24 delays were used. Precipitation from 2000 to 2012 was simulated and predicted from 2013 to 2024. For the Abraham Gonzalez station is forecasted for 2019 and 2022 less than 200 mm precipitation will occur. While in the Bachíniva station is forecasted for 2019 about 140 mm precipitation. While at the station Cuauhtemoc is forecasted for 2020 a rainfall of about 200 mm. While in Namiquipa station, a precipitation of around 160 mm is forecasted for 2018. It concludes that between 2018 and 2019, a between moderately and severe drought will occur in the northwestern region of the state of Chihuahua.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Sequía]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos ARIMA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[redes neuronales NARX]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronóstico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Drought]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ARIMA models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[NARX neural networks]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forecast]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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