<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-7467</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[RIDE. Revista Iberoamericana para la Investigación y el Desarrollo Educativo]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[RIDE. Rev. Iberoam. Investig. Desarro. Educ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-7467</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro de Estudios e Investigaciones para el Desarrollo Docente A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-74672024000100612</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.23913/ride.v14i28.1790</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Estimación de demanda estudiantil en una institución educativa para calcular capacidad docente y aulas utilizando modelo de pronósticos]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Estimation of student demand in an educational institution to calculate teaching and classrooms capacity using a forecast model]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Estimativa da demanda estudantil em uma instituição de ensino para cálculo da capacidade docente e de salas de aula por meio de modelo de previsão]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez Morachis]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Manuel Alonso]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Terrazas Mata]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luz Elena]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zorrilla Briones]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Tecnológico de Ciudad Juárez Tecnológico Nacional de México ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Tecnológico de Ciudad Juárez Tecnológico Nacional de México ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Tecnológico de Ciudad Juárez Tecnológico Nacional de México ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>14</volume>
<numero>28</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-74672024000100612&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-74672024000100612&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-74672024000100612&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el comportamiento histórico de la matrícula estudiantil en un bachillerato tecnológico de Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, con la finalidad de estimar la demanda futura. El propósito es determinar la capacidad requerida de infraestructura en la institución en lo referente a aulas y personal docente, y calcular las proporciones alumnos-maestro y alumnos-aula para compararlos con las proporciones medias internacionales y de México. Esto se debe a que, en los inicios de los ciclos escolares, se suelen presentar situaciones de falta de capacidad para atender al alumnado en tiempo, por lo que se tuvo que improvisar en la adecuación de las instalaciones y personal docente. Para este estudio, se revisaron diferentes métodos de pronósticos cuantitativos; a partir de esto, y de acuerdo con el comportamiento histórico de los datos, se utilizó el que más se apegaba a dicho comportamiento. En concreto, se colectaron datos de 15 periodos lectivos disponibles desde su inauguración. El tratamiento de los datos inició con pruebas de normalidad con el objetivo de establecer el estadístico que se utilizó. Una vez utilizado el modelo de pronósticos apropiado, se validó con 5 periodos para comprobar si los pronósticos calculados se apegan a los datos reales que se presentaron del periodo 16 al 20; asimismo, se realizaron las pruebas de hipótesis estadísticas para validación del modelo utilizado. Además, se efectuaron pruebas con diferentes factores de suavización de nivel y tendencia, y se empleó el que mostró el menor error por periodo, el cual varió desde 0.21 % a 8.88 %. Las proporciones alumnos-maestro y alumnos-aula encontradas fueron de 36 y 38, respectivamente.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The objective of this paper is to analyze the historical behavior of student enrollment in a technological high mid-level school, in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, in order to estimate future demand, to identify the required infrastructure capacity in the institution, in terms of classrooms and teaching staff and calculate the student-teacher and student-classroom ratios and compare them with the international and Mexican average ratios. This is due to the fact that at the beginning of the school cycles, there were situations of lack of capacity to serve the students on time, having to improvise in the adequacy of the facilities and teaching staff. Different methods of quantitative forecasts were reviewed that, according to the historical behavior of the data, the one that most closely adheres to mentioned behavior was used. Data from 15 school periods available since its inauguration were collected. Data treatment begins with normality tests in order to establish the statistic that was used. Once the appropriate forecast model was used, it was validated with 5 periods to check if the calculated forecasts adhered to the real data that was presented from period 16 to 20, likewise, the statistical hypothesis tests were carried out for validation of the models used. Tests were performed with different level and trend smoothing factors, using the one that showed the lowest error per period, which ranged from 0.21% to 8.88%. The ratios student-teacher and student-class found were 36 and 38 respectively.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é analisar o comportamento histórico da matrícula de alunos em uma escola secundária tecnológica em Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, a fim de estimar a demanda futura. O objetivo é determinar a capacidade de infraestrutura necessária na instituição em termos de salas de aula e pessoal docente, e calcular as proporções aluno-professor e aluno-sala de aula para compará-las com as proporções médias internacionais e mexicanas. Isto porque, no início dos ciclos escolares, costumam surgir situações de falta de capacidade para atender os alunos atempadamente, razão pela qual foi necessário improvisar na adaptação das instalações e do corpo docente. Para este estudo, foram revisados diferentes métodos de previsão quantitativa; A partir disso, e de acordo com o comportamento histórico dos dados, foi utilizado aquele que mais aderiu a esse comportamento. Especificamente, foram coletados dados de 15 períodos letivos disponíveis desde a sua inauguração. O tratamento dos dados iniciou-se com testes de normalidade para estabelecer as estatísticas utilizadas. Uma vez utilizado o modelo de previsão adequado, foi validado com 5 períodos para verificar se as previsões calculadas estão de acordo com os dados reais que foram apresentados do período 16 ao 20; Da mesma forma, foram realizados testes de hipóteses estatísticas para validar o modelo utilizado. Além disso, foram realizados testes com diferentes níveis e fatores de suavização de tendência, sendo utilizado aquele que apresentou menor erro por período, que variou de 0,21% a 8,88%. As proporções aluno-professor e aluno-sala encontradas foram de 36 e 38, respectivamente.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronóstico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[infraestructura]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[demanda escolar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[suavizamiento exponencial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estadística paramétrica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[infrastructure]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[school demand]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[exponential smoothing]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[parametric statistics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[previsão]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[infraestrutura]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[demanda escolar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[suavização exponencial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[estatística paramétrica]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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