<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-7459</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Horizonte sanitario]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Horiz. sanitario]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-7459</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Juárez Autónoma de Tabasco, División Académica de Ciencias de la Salud]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-74592020000300375</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.19136/hs.a19n3.3832</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Evidencias para la toma de decisiones sobre medidas de mitigación de COVID-19 en Jalisco, México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Evidence for decision-making on mitigation measures for COVID-19 in Jalisco, Mexico]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Evidências para a tomada de decisões sobre medidas de mitigação do COVID-19 em Jalisco, México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="fr"><![CDATA[Évidences pour la prise de décision sur les mesures d&#8217;atténuation de la COVID-19 à Jalisco, Mexique]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vejar Aguirre]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Tizoc]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jáuregui Ulloa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Edtna]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gallo Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Karen]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zavala Hernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ricardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arredondo López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Abel Armando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Servicios de Salud Jalisco Región Sanitaria X ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Zapopan]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guadalajara Centro Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Servicios de Salud Jalisco Región Sanitaria X ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Zapopan]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Servicios de Salud Jalisco Región Sanitaria X ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Zapopan]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>19</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>375</fpage>
<lpage>384</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-74592020000300375&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-74592020000300375&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-74592020000300375&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Objetivo: Desarrollar un modelo de pronóstico, para apoyar la toma de decisiones en medidas de mitigación de COVID-19 en Jalisco.  Material y métodos: Se desarrolló un modelo matemático, con enfoque determinístico S.E.I.R. para mostrar la evidencia en el desarrollo de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Jalisco. Los estados considerados fueron Susceptibles (S), Expuestos (E), Infectados (I) y Recuperados/ fallecidos (R). Los datos poblacionales se obtuvieron en base a CONAPO 2020, con una población de 8´368,311 habitantes. Se tomaron los parámetros siguientes &#946;, &#947; y &#963;, para calibrarlo a partir de las estimaciones de R0, para que el modelo se reproduzca lo mejor posible, dado que el supuesto es que no existe intervención externa que afecte la tasa de contacto y debido a que en Jalisco se aplicaron medidas de intervención. Se plantearon 5 diferentes escenarios, variando el número básico de reproducción (R0) como variable de mitigación. Se extendieron las series en el tiempo.  Resultados: El peor de los escenarios (sin intervención) se daría en la primera semana del mes de junio con R0=3 afectando a un 73.2% de la población, pero debido a las medidas de mitigación aplicadas, se observa que el mejor ajuste para el estado es para Ro=2.2 (mitigación 37.2%) dando inicio en la última semana del mes de julio afectando un 58.9% de la población, mostrando una fase menos aguda que la de sin intervención, pero de más larga de duración aproximadamente 40 semanas.  Conclusiones: Se requiere un monitoreo, ajuste y adecuación permanente de las medidas de mitigación en las fases de contención y de transmisión sostenida, con un aumento de la capacidad diagnóstica mediante pruebas e incrementar el distanciamiento social. Además, se requerirían nuevos períodos de distanciamiento social intermitente, para prevenir el colapso del sistema estatal de salud, que se activaría con el incremento de la tasa básica de reproducción R0.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Objective: To develop a forecasting model to support decision-making on mitigation measures of covid-19 in jalisco.  Material and methods: A mathematical model with a deterministic approach s.e.i.r. was developed. To show the evidence in the development of the covid-19 pandemic in jalisco. The states considered were susceptible (s), exposed (e), infected (i) and recovered / deceased (r). Population data were obtained based on conapo 2020, with a population of 8,368,311 inhabitants. The following parameters &#946;, &#947; and &#963; were taken to calibrate it from the estimates of r0, so that the model reproduces itself as best as possible, since the assumption is that there is no external intervention that affects the contact rate and due to that in jalisco intervention measures were applied. 5 different scenarios were proposed, varying the basic number of reproduction (r0) as a mitigation variable. The series were extended in time.  Results: The worst case scenario (without intervention) would occur in the first week of june with r0 = 3 affecting 73.2% of the population, but due to the mitigation measures applied, it is observed that the best adjustment for the state it is for ro = 2.2 (mitigation 37.2%) beginning in the last week of july, affecting 58.9% of the population, showing a less acute phase than that of no intervention but of longer duration, approximately 40 weeks.  Conclusions: Continuous monitoring, adjustment and adaptation of mitigation measures are required in the containment and sustained transmission phases, with an increase in diagnostic capacity through tests and increased social distancing. In addition, new periods of intermittent social distancing would be required to prevent the collapse of the state health system, which would be activated with the increase in the basic rate of reproduction r0.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo  Objetivo: Desenvolva um modelo de previsão para apoiar a tomada de decisões sobre medidas de mitigação do COVID-19 em Jalisco.  Material e métodos: Um modelo matemático com uma abordagem determinística S.E.I.R. foi desenvolvido. mostrar as evidências no desenvolvimento da pandemia de COVID-19 em Jalisco. Os estados considerados foram Susceptíveis (S), Expostos (E), Infectados (I) e Recuperados / Falecidos (R). Os dados populacionais foram obtidos com base no CONAPO 2020, com uma população de 8.368.311 habitantes. Os seguintes parâmetros &#946;, &#947; e &#963; foram tomados para calibrá-lo a partir das estimativas de R0, para que o modelo seja reproduzido da melhor forma possível, pois pressupõe-se que não há intervenção externa que afete a taxa de contato e devido a que em Jalisco foram aplicadas medidas de intervenção. Foram propostos 5 cenários diferentes, variando o número básico de reprodução (R0) como variável de mitigação. As séries foram estendidas no tempo.  Resultados: O pior cenário (sem intervenção) ocorreria na primeira semana de junho com R0 = 3 afetando 73,2% da população, mas devido às medidas de mitigação aplicadas, observa-se que o melhor ajuste para o estado é para Ro = 2,2 (mitigação 37,2%) a partir da última semana de julho, afetando 58,9% da população, mostrando uma fase menos aguda do que a de nenhuma intervenção, mas de maior duração, aproximadamente 40 semanas.  Conclusões: O monitoramento, ajuste e adaptação contínuos das medidas de mitigação são necessários nas fases de contenção e transmissão sustentada, com aumento da capacidade de diagnóstico por meio de testes e aumento do distanciamento social. Além disso, novos períodos de distanciamento social intermitente seriam necessários para evitar o colapso do sistema de saúde do estado, que seria ativado com o aumento da taxa básica de reprodução R0.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="fr"><p><![CDATA[résumé est disponible dans le document]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Evidencia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Tendencia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Mitigación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[evidence]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[trend]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[mitigation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[covid-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Evidência]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Tendência]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Mitigação]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[évidences]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[tendance]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[atténuation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[covid-19]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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