<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-6576</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Sociedad y ambiente]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Soc. ambient.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-6576</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Colegio de la Frontera Sur]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-65762018000300117</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Análisis y modelación espacial de los patrones de deforestación (2005-2025) en la microcuenca La Unión del municipio de Chiapa de Corzo, Chiapas]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Analysis and Modeling of the Spatial Patterns of Deforestation (2005-2025) in the La Union Micro-Watershed in the Chiapa de Corzo Municipality, Chiapas]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López Alegría]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ariosto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ríos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mauricio José]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Flamenco Sandoval]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Farfán Gutiérrez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Michelle]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Ciencias y Artes de Chiapas  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guanajuato  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guanajuato  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>18</numero>
<fpage>117</fpage>
<lpage>143</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-65762018000300117&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-65762018000300117&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-65762018000300117&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El presente estudio analiza el proceso de deforestación de la selva baja caducifolia (VSBC) y desarrolla un modelo tendencial al año 2025. La cartografía empleada abarca dos periodos, 2005-2011 (calibración del modelo) y 2011-2016 (validación del modelo), escala 1:20 000. Se encontró que en 2005 la VSBC ocupaba 34.2 % (8.161 ha) de la superficie total de la microcuenca La Unión en el municipio de Chiapa de Corzo, Chiapas. Para 2016 esta cobertura se redujo 25.1 % (7 182 ha), 9.1 % menos en 11 años, lo que representa un total de 2 168 hectáreas deforestadas, destinadas a otros usos de suelo. Las tasas de cambio estimadas indican una tendencia de incremento del proceso de deforestación, -10.1 %/año (2005-2011) y -16.6 %/año (2011-2016). Se esperaría que en el 2025 la VSBC represente el 13.9 % (3 311 ha) de la superficie, 11.2 % (2 682 ha) menos que en 2016. Asimismo, se evidencia el crecimiento de asentamientos humanos y la expansión de superficies destinadas a tierras agrícolas, especialmente pastizal inducido; siendo este último el uso de suelo que mayor superficie ganó a través de los años.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In the present study an analysis of the deforestation process was carried out and a trend model of deforestation of tropical deciduous forest (TDF) was developed for the year 2025. The cartography used corresponds to two periods: 2005-2011 (period of calibration) and 2016 (for model validation), at a scale of 1:20 000. It was found that for 2005 the TDF covered 34.2 % (8 161 ha) of the total surface of the micro-watershed La Unión, municipality Chiapa de Corzo, Chiapas. In 2016 this cover was reduced by 25.1 % (7 182 ha), that is 9.1 % less in 11 years, which represents a total of 2 168 hectares deforested, destined to other land uses. The estimated exchange rates showed high a deforestation trend: -10.1 %/year (2005-2011) and -16.6 %/year (2011-2016). It would be expected that by 2025 the TDF would represent 13.9 % (3 311 ha) of the surface in the micro-watershed, 11.2 % less than in 2016 (2 682 ha). Furthermore, the results highlight the growth of human settlements and the expansion of surface area for induced pasturelands, the latter being the land use that gained more surface area over the years.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Dinámica de cambio de cobertura y uso de suelo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo tendencial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[matriz de transición anualizada]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pastizal inducido]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[DINAMICA EGO]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[annualized transition matrix]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[DINAMICA EGO]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[induced pasture]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[monitoring land use and land cover change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[trend model]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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