<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-4298</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Botanical Sciences]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Bot. sci]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-4298</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Sociedad Botánica de México A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-42982016000100025</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17129/botsci.241</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Integración del balance hídrico en la modelación de la distribución de especies de árboles mexicanos]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vaca]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Raúl A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Golicher]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Duncan J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,El Colegio de la Frontera Sur División de la Conservación de la Biodiversidad Departamento de Ecología y Sistemática Terrestre]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[San Cristóbal de Las Casas Chiapas]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Bournemouth University School of Conservation Sciences Centre for Conservation Ecology &amp; Environmental Change]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Poole Dorset]]></addr-line>
<country>United Kingdom</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>94</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>25</fpage>
<lpage>42</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-42982016000100025&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-42982016000100025&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-42982016000100025&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: El modelado de la distribución de especies se basa típicamente en modelos estáticos que integran variables puramente climáticas. Una alternativa es utilizar modelos mecanísticos o semi-mecanísticos que incorporan variables que afectan la respuesta fisiológica de los organismos. En este trabajo demostramos la importancia de complementar el uso de estos dos tipos de modelos para predecir la distribución de especies de árboles mexicanos. Se seleccionaron 258 especies asociadas a cinco diferentes ecosistemas, que varían en su grado de exposición a los períodos de sequía y se ajustaron modelos aditivos generalizados (GAM). Se mapeó la dinámica anual de humedad del suelo (DHanual) a lo largo de Mesoamérica, y se comparó la habilidad predictiva de este proceso en contraste con modelos ajustados con precipitación anual (Panual). El efecto de la temperatura promedio y intervalo anual de temperatura se incluyó en ambos modelos. DHanual mostró una capacidad significativamente mayor que Panual para predecir la distribución de especies que presentan una respuesta general al estrés hídrico caracterizada por el ahorro y la tolerancia. Se observó un incremento promedio en el AUC al reemplazar Panual por DHanual para los grupos de especies de matorral xerófilo (0.15); de bosque tropical caducifolio (0.09) y de bosque tropical húmedo (0.07). DHanual no contribuyó a mejorar las predicciones para especies de áreas montañosas. El balance hídrico del suelo calculado a escala regional es un predictor valioso para entender diferencias en la distribución de especies de bosques tropicales cálidos de secos a húmedos, donde la temperatura se mantiene comparativamente más constante. Incorporar elementos espaciales, específicamente elevación, podría contribuir a definir mejor la distribución de especies de áreas montañosas. DHanual introduce una importante fuente de incertidumbre respecto a la información climática debido a la dificultad de integrar parámetros del suelo y la variabilidad geomorfológica que ocurre a escalas locales.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Species distribution models are typically based on relationships between species occurrence and simple climatic variables. An alternative strategy is to use mechanistic or semi-mechanistic models that incorporate variables that are known to have important effects on physiological responses of the organisms. We compared models built using simple climatic variables with models incorporating calculations of monthly soil water balance when predicting the distribution of 258 Mexican tree species associated with five different ecosystems. The species chosen varied in their degree of exposure to periods of drought. Water balance was calculated using a bucket model that integrated the effects of evapotranspiration and rainfall over a year. Models incorporating calculated soil water balance were contrasted with models that used net annual rainfall as a measure of variability in water availability. The effects of mean annual temperature and temperature range were included in both sets of models. More detailed water balance models showed a significantly improved ability to predict the distribution of some, but not all, species. The observed increase in mean AUC when replacing Panual by DHanual was higher for the group of species of xeric scrub (0.15), intermediate for the group of species of deciduous tropical forests (0.09), and significant, but comparatively low for the group of species of tropical moist forests (0.07). Calculated water balance did not improve predictions for species found in montane forests. We conclude that including detailed calculations of soil water balance can improve the species distribution models in areas of both moist and dry warm tropical forests, where temperature remains comparatively constant. However including variability in soil water balance is less important when species distributions are limited by the effect of elevation on temperature. Model predictions could be further refined through the incorporation of soil parameters and geomorphological variability at a local scales.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[balance hídrico del suelo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo de cubeta]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos aditivos generalizados]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos de distribución de especies]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[bucket model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[generalized additive models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[water balance]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[species distribution models]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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