<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-4026</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ingeniería agrícola y biosistemas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Ing. agric. biosist.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-4026</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Chapingo]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-40262021000100077</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5154/r.inagbi.2021.02.040</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Hydrologic modeling to measure the impact of climate change in the Yaqui River basin]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelación hidrológica para medir el impacto del cambio climático en la cuenca del río Yaqui]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cruz-González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sánchez-Cohen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ignacio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Macías-Corral]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Maritza Argelia]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Velásquez-Valle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Miguel Agustín]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Trejo-Calzada]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ricardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo Unidad Regional Universitaria Zonas Áridas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bermejillo Durango]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Gómez Palacio Durango]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Coahuila  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Torreón Coahuila]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>13</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>77</fpage>
<lpage>94</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-40262021000100077&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-40262021000100077&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-40262021000100077&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Introduction: Changes in climate patterns threaten water security of the population and its economic activities.  Objective: To model and analyze the behavior of surface runoff in the Yaqui river basin under climate change scenarios.  Methodology: Representative concentration pathways (RCP) of three sub-basins (La Angostura, El Novillo and El Oviachic) were shown using hydrologic modeling with SWAT, where the simulated variable was surface runoff.  Results: A change in water availability of -67 % is expected in La Angostura for the period 2021-2040 (RCP2.6) and an increase of 60 % from 2041-2060 (RCP8.5), in El Novillo a decrease of 65 % is predicted for the period 2061-2080 (RCP4. 5) and a 42 % increase from 2061-2080 (RCP2.6), and in El Oviachic a 63 % decrease is predicted for the period 2041-2060 (RCP2.6 and 4.5) and a 47 % increase from 2041-2060 (RCP4.5).  Limitations: Veracity and impact of basins studies depend on quality hydro-climatic information of unrestricted availability.  Originality: The impact of climate change on the availability of water for agricultural use in the Yaqui River basin was projected. In addition, there is a technological platform for planning processes.  Conclusions: The data collected can be used to generate adaptation and mitigation strategies for efficient water use in the basin and to propose long-term sustainable management alternatives.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Introducción:  Los cambios en los patrones climáticos amenazan la seguridad hídrica de la población y sus actividades económicas.  Objetivos:  Modelar y analizar el comportamiento del escurrimiento superficial de la cuenca del río Yaqui ante escenarios de cambio climático.  Metodología:  Se proyectaron trayectorias de concentración representativas (RCP) de tres subcuencas (La Angostura, El Novillo y El Oviachic) mediante la modelación hidrológica con SWAT, donde la variable simulada fue el escurrimiento superficial.  Resultados: En La Angostura se espera un cambio de disponibilidad de agua de -67 % para el periodo 2021-2040 (RCP2.6) y un aumento de 60 % de 2041-2060 (RCP8.5), en El Novillo se predice una disminución de 65 % para el periodo 2061-2080 (RCP4.5) y un incremento de 42 % de 2061-2080 (RCP2.6), y en El Oviachic se pronostica una disminución de 63 % para el periodo 2041-2060 (RCP2.6 y 4.5) y un aumento de 47 % de 2041-2060 (RCP4.5).  Limitaciones:  La veracidad e impacto de los estudios de cuencas dependen de información hidro-climática de calidad y de disponibilidad irrestricta.  Originalidad: Se proyectó el impacto del cambio climático en la disponibilidad de agua para uso agrícola en la cuenca del río Yaqui. Además, se cuenta con una plataforma tecnológica para los procesos de planeación.  Conclusiones:  Con los datos obtenidos se pueden generar estrategias de adaptación y mitigación para eficientar el uso del agua de la cuenca y proponer alternativas de manejo sustentable a largo plazo.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[SWAT model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[RCP]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[surface runoff]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo SWAT]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[RCP]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[escurrimiento superficial]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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