<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-4018</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Chapingo serie ciencias forestales y del ambiente]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Chapingo ser. cienc. for. ambient]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-4018</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Coordinación de Revistas Institucionales]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-40182022000200271</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5154/r.rchscfa.2021.02.008</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Climate change and impact on distribution of tree species in the cloud forest of Oaxaca]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Cambio climático y su efecto sobre la distribución de especies arbóreas del bosque mesófilo de montaña de Oaxaca]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Altamirano-León]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sandra]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez-Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Julio C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Díaz-Porras]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Daniel F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Balam-Narváez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ricardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Luna-Vega]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Isolda]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Contreras-Medina]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Raúl]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Benito Juárez de Oaxaca Escuela de Ciencias Laboratorio de Biodiversidad]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Oaxaca de Juárez Oaxaca]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Facultad de Ciencias Departamento de Biología Evolutiva]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Coyoacán Ciudad de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>28</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>271</fpage>
<lpage>287</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-40182022000200271&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-40182022000200271&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-40182022000200271&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Introduction: Climate change represents a problem that generates long-term impacts and is considered a threat to the conservation of many species.  Objective: To evaluate the impact of climate change on the distribution areas of 10 trees species characteristic of cloud forests in the state of Oaxaca.  Materials and methods: The impact was evaluated for two-time horizons (2050 and 2080) and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) under the Had GEM2-ES general atmospheric circulation model. Current and future distribution was modeled with MaxEnt. The distribution of Carpinus tropicalis, Juglans pyriformis, Liquidambar styraciflua, Litsea glaucescens, Magnolia dealbata, Magnolia schiedeana, Ostrya virginiana, Symplocos coccinea, Zinowiewia concinna and Taxus globosa were obtained from the herbarium specimen review.  Results and discussion:  In RCP 4.5, J. pyriformis, L. styraciflua, L. glaucescens and S. coccinea increased (2.8 % to 20.5 %) their area of distribution. In this scenario, the rest of the species reduced their area by up to 30 % compared to the current distribution. In RCP 8.5-2050, J. pyriformis and O. virginiana had a gain of more than 5 %. All species showed a reduction greater than 10 % under the RCP 8.5-2080 scenario. The models showed area under the curve greater than 0.8 and partial ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) greater than 1.7.  Conclusions: Understanding the response of 10 species to climate change will serve as a basis for proposing conservation and monitoring plans, since nine of them are in some category of risk.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Introducción:  El cambio climático representa un problema que genera impactos a largo plazo y se considera una amenaza para la conservación de muchas especies.  Objetivo:  Evaluar el impacto del cambio climático sobre las áreas distribución de 10 especies arbóreas características del bosque mesófilo de montaña en el estado de Oaxaca.  Materiales y métodos:  El impacto se evaluó para dos horizontes de tiempo (2050 y 2080) y dos escenarios de emisiones (RCP 4.5 y 8.5) bajo el modelo general de circulación atmosférica HadGEM2-ES. La distribución actual y futura se modeló con MaxEnt. La distribución de Carpinus tropicalis, Juglans pyriformis, Liquidambar styraciflua, Litsea glaucescens, Magnolia dealbata, Magnolia schiedeana, Ostrya virginiana, Symplocos coccinea, Zinowiewia concinna y Taxus globosa se obtuvieron a partir de la revisión de ejemplares en herbarios.  Resultados y discusión:  En el RCP 4.5, J. pyriformis, L. styraciflua, L. glaucescens y S. coccinea aumentaron (2.8 % a 20.5 %) su área de distribución. En este escenario, el resto de las especies redujeron su área hasta en 30 % con respecto a la distribución actual. En el RCP 8.5-2050, J. pyriformis y O. virginiana tuvieron una ganancia mayor de 5 %. Todas las especies mostraron reducción mayor de 10 % bajo el escenario RCP 8.5-2080. Los modelos presentaron área bajo la curva mayor de 0.8 y ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) parcial mayor de 1.7.  Conclusiones:  El conocimiento de la respuesta de las 10 especies ante el cambio climático servirá de base para proponer planes de conservación y monitoreo, considerando que nueve se encuentran en alguna categoría de riesgo.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Juglans pyriformis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Ostrya virginiana]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[threatened species]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[emission scenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[time horizons]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Juglans pyriformis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Ostrya virginiana]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[especies amenazadas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[escenarios de emisión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[horizontes de tiempo]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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