<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-2422</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnología y ciencias del agua]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnol. cienc. agua]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-2422</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Coordinación de Comunicación, Participación e Información]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-24222020000600287</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24850/j-tyca-2020-06-07</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Generación de índices de seguridad hídrica municipal con un enfoque probabilista]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Generation of municipal water security indices by a probabilistic approach]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arreguín-Cortés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Felipe Ignacio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez-Varela]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gueorguiev-Tzatchkov]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Velitchko]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortez-Mejía]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Petronilo Edilburgo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Llaguno-Guilberto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Óscar Jesús]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mendoza-Cázares]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Edgar Yuri]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sainos-Candelario]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Arizabeth]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gómez-Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortega-Gaucín]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[David]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Saavedra-Horita]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Raúl]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,farreguin2011@gmail.com  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Jiutepec Morelos]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Jiutepec Morelos]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Jiutepec Morelos]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Jiutepec Morelos]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af6">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Jiutepec Morelos]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af7">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Jiutepec Morelos]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af8">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Jiutepec Morelos]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af9">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Jiutepec Morelos]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A10">
<institution><![CDATA[,Consultor  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<fpage>287</fpage>
<lpage>338</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-24222020000600287&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-24222020000600287&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-24222020000600287&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En el siglo XXI, el agua escasea en Latinoamérica y el Caribe por el aumento de la demanda, resultado de un crecimiento poblacional, incremento de la producción de alimentos y mayor consumo energético, vinculados con una variación temporal del clima. Los gobiernos deben establecer programas de seguridad hídrica, a través de la planeación de la gestión del recurso agua, como un cambio del paradigma. México no es la excepción, un país de fuertes contrastes meteorológicos, hidrográficos y sociales a lo largo de su territorio, que afectan de varias formas a los diferentes estratos de la población, similar a otros países en desarrollo. En este contexto, se proponen y cuantifican índices de peligro, vulnerabilidad social y riesgo mediante una metodología probabilística para el cálculo del índice de seguridad hídrica. El peligro se expresa por indicadores como acceso a los servicios básicos de agua, inundaciones, abatimiento del nivel freático y sequias. A su vez, la vulnerabilidad contempla proporción de médicos por cada 1 000 habitantes, tasa de mortalidad infantil, población derechohabiente, analfabetismo, condiciones de la vivienda, población económicamente activa, razón de dependencia, tasa de desempleo abierto y población de habla indígena. En el desarrollo de este estudio se demuestra que tanto el peligro como la vulnerabilidad a lo largo del territorio mexicano son muy heterogéneos. La metodología probabilística propuesta se apoyó en un sistema de información geográfica, lo que permitió obtener índices de seguridad hídrica para todos los municipios de México (2 456 municipios).]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Water is turning to be scarce in many countries in the world, in the 21st century, caused by an increase in its demand due to population growth, increased food production and higher energy consumption, linked to a temporary climate variation. Governments must establish water security programs by planning the management of water resources, as a paradigm shift. Mexico is not the exception, a country of strong meteorological, hydrographic and social contrasts throughout its territory, which impact in different ways the population strata, similar to other developing countries. In this context, hazard, social vulnerability and risk indices are proposed and quantified in this paper, through a probabilistic methodology for calculating water security. Hazard is expressed by basic water services shortage, floods, groundwater depletion, and drought indicators. In turn, the vulnerability considers educational level of the population, access to health services, infant mortality rate, illiteracy, housing conditions, unemployment and proportion of indigenous language population. In the development of this study it is shown that both hazard and vulnerability throughout the Mexican territory are very heterogeneous. The proposed probabilistic methodology was implemented in a Geographical Information System obtaining water security indices for all municipalities in Mexico (2 456 municipalities).]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[seguridad hídrica a nivel municipal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[peligro]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[vulnerabilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[riesgo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Water security]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[municipalities]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[probability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[indices]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[risk]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[vulnerability]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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