<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-2422</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnología y ciencias del agua]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnol. cienc. agua]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-2422</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Coordinación de Comunicación, Participación e Información]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-24222020000300342</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24850/j-tyca-2020-03-10</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Impacto del cambio de cobertura vegetal y del clima en la erosión del Nevado de Toluca]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Change of vegetable coverage impact in the erosion of the nevado de Toluca]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alonso]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Homero]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Diakite]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lamine]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rufino]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jaquelinne]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Facultad de Estudios Superiores Cuautitlán ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cuautitlán Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Texcoco Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Tecnológico Superior de Huichapan  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Huichapan Hidalgo]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>342</fpage>
<lpage>370</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-24222020000300342&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-24222020000300342&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-24222020000300342&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El cambio climático implica la alteración espacial y temporal de variables climáticas, como temperatura y precipitación, las cuales, hidrológicamente, implican eventos extremos lluvia-escurrimiento que producen pérdidas humanas, económicas y ecológicas en la parte baja de las cuencas; además, provocan la alteración del ciclo hidrológico. Por ello, se requiere en México del estudio de las cuencas como unidad fundamental, para identificar el efecto que el cambio de cobertura vegetal y el clima suscitan sobre sus características hidrológicas, a fin de proponer acciones de mitigación. En este estudio se evaluó el impacto del cambio de cobertura vegetal en la erosión hídrica mediante el uso de la técnica de álgebra de mapas, implementando un modelo hidrológico adaptado de la Ecuación Universal de Pérdida de Suelo (EUPS), y una serie multitemporal de imágenes multiespectrales Landsat y Spot de la década de 1980 y 2010. El trabajo se realizó en 52 microcuencas localizadas alrededor del volcán Nevado de Toluca. Los resultados mostraron que 36 de ellas presentaron incremento promedio en la tasa de erosión de 43.9%, que se asocia con pérdida de la cobertura vegetal por incendios, labores antrópicas e incremento de la desertificación; las 16 restantes mostraron decremento debido a que tuvieron un cambio favorable en el uso del suelo y, por lo tanto, en su condición hidrológica; estos efectos se relacionan con los valores de las variables climáticas involucradas.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The climatic change implies the spatial and temporal alteration of climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation which, in a hydrological way, imply extreme rain-draining events that produce human, economic and ecological losses in the lower part of the basins. It change the hydrological cycle to. For this reason, the study of basins is required in Mexico as a fundamental unit to identify the effect that climate change causes on its hydrological characteristics and to propose mitigation actions. This study evaluated the impact of climate change on water erosion by using the map algebra technique implementing a hydrological model adapted from the Universal Soil Loss Equation (EUPS) and a multitime series of multispectral images LANDSAT and SPOT of the decade of 1980 and 2010. The work was carried out in 52 subwathershed located around the Nevado de Toluca Volcano. The results showed that 36 sub-watersheds present an average increase in the erosion rate of 43.9%, which is associated with the loss of vegetation cover due to fires, anthropogenic work and increased desertification. The remaining 16 showed decrement because they had favorable change in land use and therefore in their hydrological condition. These effects are related to the increase in the values of the climatic variables in recent years.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[percepción remota]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo hidrológico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[álgebra de mapas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[uso de suelo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[análisis multitemporal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Remote sensing]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Hydrological model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[map algebra]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[land use]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[multitemporal analysis]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bonebrake]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T. C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Syphard]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Franklin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Anderson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Akçakaya]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mizerek]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Regan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for Long&#8208;Lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization, and fire regime]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Conservation Biology]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>28</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>1057-67</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Brady]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N. C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Weil]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Elements of the nature and properties of soils]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Upper Saddle River, USA ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Prentice-Hall]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Diakite]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Detección y análisis del cambio climático en México mediante la percepción remota multitemporal de los glaciares tropicales y la evaluación de su impacto potencial sobre los ecosistemas circundantes. Caso del Pico de Orizaba y Nevado de Toluca. Informe Técnico]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México, DF, México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Chapingo]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Figueroa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Amante]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Osuna]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Morales]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Manual de predicción de pérdidas de suelo por erosión]]></source>
<year>1991</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Montecillo, México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Colegio de Postgraduados]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Food and Agriculture Organization</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Metodología para la evaluación de la degradación de los suelos]]></source>
<year>1980</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Roma, Italia ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Food and Agriculture Organization]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lara]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Urrutia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bosnich]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Cambio climático y su impacto potencial en la ocurrencia de incendios forestales en la zona centro-sur de chile (33º-42º S)]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Bosque]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>32</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>215-9</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Guariguata]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[El manejo forestal en el contexto de la adaptación al cambio climático]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Revista de Estudios Sociales]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<numero>32</numero>
<issue>32</issue>
<page-range>98-113</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Huerta-Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ibarra-Montoya]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Cambio climático y predicción de incendios al 2050 en el Bosque La Primavera, Jalisco]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Forestales]]></source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>7</volume>
<numero>37</numero>
<issue>37</issue>
<page-range>39-50</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Extractor Rápido de Información Climatológica ERIC III]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Jiutepec, México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía</collab>
<source><![CDATA[INEGI. Ciudad de México]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Solomon]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Qin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Manning]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Z.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Marquis]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Averyt]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tignor]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Miller]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H. L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<collab>International Panel of Climatic Change</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Four Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Cambridge, UK, New York, USA ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Cambridge University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Introduces Automates Tools for ENVI</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Exploring ENVI, Region of Interest and Clasification Techniques]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<page-range>131-2</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Boulder, USA ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Exelis Visual Information Solutions]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Laucirica]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mancino]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Uboldi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Michalijos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Cambio climático, turismo y riesgo de incendios forestales, de pasturas y de interfase, en el sudoeste bonaerense, su análisis con geotecnologías]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Revista Geográfica de América Central]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>2</volume>
<numero>julio-diciembre</numero>
<issue>julio-diciembre</issue>
<page-range>1-15</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Maass]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García-Oliva]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[La investigación sobre la erosión de suelos en México. Un análisis de la literatura existente]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Ciencia]]></source>
<year>1990</year>
<volume>41</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>209-28</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>National Climatic Data Center</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Climate of 2001. Annual Review]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Asheville, USA ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>United State Department of Agriculture</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Urban hydrology for smallwatersheds]]></source>
<year>1986</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Williams]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Sediment-yield prediction with Universal Equation using runoff energy factor]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Present and Prospective Technology for Predicting Sediment Yield and Sources]]></source>
<year>1975</year>
<page-range>244-52</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Washington, USA ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[U.S. Department of Agriculture]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wischmeier]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Smith]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. D.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Predicting rainfall erosion losses a guide to conservation planning]]></source>
<year>1978</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Washington, USA ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[U.S. Department of Agriculture]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>World Meteorological Organization</collab>
<source><![CDATA[WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2001]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Geneva, Switzerland ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[World Meteorological Organization]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yong]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[El cambio climático y los incendios: la naturaleza parece equilibrar la devastación ecológica hecha en los países subdesarrollados, consumiendo recursos forestales de "naciones ecológicamente educadas" como Estados Unidos, Canadá y las potencias europeas]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Siempre]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<volume>50</volume>
<numero>2620</numero>
<issue>2620</issue>
<page-range>56</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
