<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-2422</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnología y ciencias del agua]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnol. cienc. agua]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-2422</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Coordinación de Comunicación, Participación e Información]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-24222020000300027</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24850/j-tyca-2020-03-02</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelación no estacionaria de la magnitud y frecuencia de las crecidas en el Alto Cauca mediante índices climáticos y de operación de embalse]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Non-stationary modeling of the magnitude and frequency of floods in Alto Cauca through climatic and reservoir operation indexes]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sedano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Karime]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carvajal-Escobar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yesid]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López-De la Cruz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jesús]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Francés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Félix]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali Valle del Cauca]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali Valle del Cauca]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Colima Facultad de Ingeniería Civil ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Colima]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universitat Politècnica de València  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Valencia]]></addr-line>
<country>Spain</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>27</fpage>
<lpage>77</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-24222020000300027&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-24222020000300027&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-24222020000300027&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen A través de los modelos aditivos generalizados de localización, escala y forma se estudian los cambios en la frecuencia y magnitud de las crecidas anuales en el río Cauca, localizado en el suroccidente de Colombia. El análisis de frecuencias de crecidas no estacionario incorpora dos índices macroclimáticos y un índice antrópico, que permite asumir los cambios en el almacenamiento de agua en el embalse y el porcentaje de área tributaria regulada, como factores que inciden en la capacidad de la represa para laminar las crecidas. Los resultados muestran que forzamientos que dependen del Índice Multivariado del Fenómeno El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENSO, por sus siglas en inglés) y del índice de embalse propuesto, cuando son aplicados a los parámetros de la función de distribución, mejoran la calidad de ajuste y la descripción de la variabilidad temporal de la serie de tiempo de crecidas. Frente al análisis convencional, los modelos no estacionarios indican diferencias significativas en los caudales asociados con cierto periodo de retorno y en el riesgo de fallo de un caudal de diseño en función de la vida útil. La principal conclusión es que desde 1986, en la estación de aforo Juanchito, los caudales exhiben un incremento en magnitud que está asociada inequívocamente con eventos de la fase fría del fenómeno ENSO. Por lo tanto, los modelos no estacionarios proveen información de interés para el embalse, su estrategia de regulación de caudales altos y en la gestión del riesgo de inundaciones.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In this study, changes in the frequency and magnitude of annual floods in the Cauca River (Southwest Colombia) are modeled using a non-stationary framework by means of the Generalized Additive Models of Localization, Scale and Shape. Non-stationary flood frequency analysis incorporates two climatic indices and an anthropic index that allows us to assume that changes in the water reservoir and the percentage of regulated tributary area are factors which disturb the capacity of the dam to withhold the flood. The results highlight the role of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the proposed Reservoir Index, as significant covariates in the parameters of the selected distributions. The dependence of model parameters on covariates improves the model&#8217;s capacity for representing temporal variability of the flood regime. Non-stationary models indicate significant differences in the flow associated with a specific return period, and in the failure risk of flow design, depending on the working life, in contrast to classical stationary models. The main conclusion is that since 1986 in the gauging station Juanchito, flooding has shown a gradual increase in magnitude, which is unambiguously associated with the cold phase of the ENSO phenomenon. Therefore, the non-stationary models provide valuable information on the reservoir, its regulation strategy for high flow, and for flood risk management in the Cauca river basin.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[análisis de frecuencias de crecidas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[no estacionariedad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[fenómeno ENSO]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[alteración antrópica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Floods frequency analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[non-stationary]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[El Niño South Oscillation Phenomenon]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[anthropogenic interference]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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