<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-2422</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnología y ciencias del agua]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnol. cienc. agua]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-2422</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Coordinación de Comunicación, Participación e Información]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-24222019000100207</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24850/j-tyca-2019-01-08</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Dynamic modelling of the climate change impact in the Conchos River basin water management]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez-Austria]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Polioptro F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vargas Hidalgo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Patiño-Gómez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de las Américas Puebla  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Puebla]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,alberto.vargasho@udlap.mx  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de las Américas Puebla  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Puebla]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>10</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>207</fpage>
<lpage>233</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-24222019000100207&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-24222019000100207&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-24222019000100207&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In the last decades there have been some deficits in water deliveries that Mexico must make to the United States under the Water Treaty between the two countries. Population growth and the effects of climate change make possible foresee that the difficulties will increase in the future. This text analyzes the observed changes in rainfall in the basin, and a dynamic model is developed to estimate the effects of climate change on the water balance of the Conchos river basin, which contributes 87% of the amount of water established as Mexicans commitments in the Treaty. The results of three scenarios are shown and the effects on water availability in the basin are exposed. A sensitivity analysis is presented, with the Montecarlo method, regarding the main effects of climate change in the basin. To analyze the effects on irrigation, the main use of water in the basin, a adaptive dynamic model and its results are also presented. Finally, the expected effects on future availability are concluded, and general recommendations are made for adaptation to climate change.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Transboundary river basins]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[United States-Mexico water treaty]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[dynamic modelling]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[international waters management]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Conchos River basin]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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