<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-2422</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnología y ciencias del agua]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnol. cienc. agua]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-2422</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Coordinación de Comunicación, Participación e Información]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-24222018000200150</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24850/j-tyca-2018-02-06</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Incertidumbre en los caudales de salida de un modelo hidrológico semidistribuido]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Uncertainty in the outputs of a semi-distributed hydrological model]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Muñoz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Enrique]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gutiérrez-Vejar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tume-Zapata]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pedro I.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Concepción ]]></addr-line>
<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Concepción ]]></addr-line>
<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Concepción ]]></addr-line>
<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>9</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>150</fpage>
<lpage>174</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-24222018000200150&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-24222018000200150&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-24222018000200150&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Para una adecuada gestión hídrica resulta necesario conocer tanto los caudales simulados por un modelo como la incertidumbre asociada con éstos. El presente estudio busca cuantificar la incertidumbre en los caudales simulados por un modelo hidrológico junto con la propagación de ésta hacia aguas abajo, producto de incertidumbre en las precipitaciones, para así definir potenciales mejoras en los resultados de un modelo hidrológico. Se calibró un modelo conceptual semidistribuido y se determinó la incertidumbre asociada con la estructura y parámetros, para luego cuantificar la incertidumbre relacionada con una variación porcentual de las precipitaciones en diferentes periodos del año. Como resultado se obtuvo que el efecto de propagación de la incertidumbre hacia aguas abajo es despreciable debido al aumento de la magnitud de los caudales simulados, y que la incertidumbre en las salidas del modelo depende de la incertidumbre en las precipitaciones sólo en invierno.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract For proper water management, it is necessary to know both the flows simulated by a model and the uncertainty associated with them. This study seeks to quantify the uncertainty in the flows simulated by a hydrological model and its propagation downstream caused by uncertainties in rainfall, in order to recommend potential improvements in the model results. A conceptual model was calibrated and the uncertainty associated with the model structure and parameters was quantified. Then the uncertainty associated with a percentage change in rainfall during different periods of the year was calculated. As a result, the propagation of uncertainty downstream was found to be negligible due to the increase in the magnitude of the simulated flows and because the uncertainty in model outputs depends on the uncertainty in precipitation only in winter.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[incertidumbre]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelación hidrológica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[hidrología superficial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[hydrologic modeling]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[surface hydrology]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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