<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-2422</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnología y ciencias del agua]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnol. cienc. agua]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-2422</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Coordinación de Comunicación, Participación e Información]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-24222017000400005</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24850/j-tyca-2017-04-01</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Identificación de cambios en la ciclogénesis del Atlántico Norte mediante un modelo de mezclas Gaussianas]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Identification of changes in the North Atlantic cyclogenesis using a Gaussian mixture model]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Buendía-Espinoza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Julio César]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pérez-Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Paulino]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González-Camacho]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pérez-Elizalde]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sergio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Exebio-García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Adolfo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rosengaus Moshinsky]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Michel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Peña]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Malaquías]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Colegio de Postgraduados  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,aff3  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,National Centers for Environmental Prediction  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>8</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<fpage>5</fpage>
<lpage>18</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-24222017000400005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-24222017000400005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-24222017000400005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Varios modelos climáticos sugieren que la frecuencia e intensidad de los ciclones tropicales cambiarán a finales del siglo XXI, como consecuencia del calentamiento global. Existen diferentes reportes científicos sobre el calentamiento global y su relación con la intensidad de los ciclones tropicales. Sin embargo, poco se ha investigado sobre el impacto del calentamiento global sobre la ciclogénesis en las diferentes cuencas oceánicas. En este trabajo se estima el número de regiones ciclogénicas y sus centroides en la cuenca oceánica del Atlántico Norte entre los periodos 1951-1975 versus 1976-2013 y 1951-1989 versus 1990-2013 mediante un modelo estadístico de mezclas finitas Gaussianas, para identificar si existen cambios significativos debidos al cambio climático. En el presente estudio, los cambios de un intervalo a otro se le atribuirán al cambio climático. La estimación de los parámetros de la función de densidad de probabilidades (fdp) de los componentes de las mezclas se hizo a través del algoritmo esperanza-maximización (EM). Las fdp se compararon mediante la distancia de Bhattacharyya y se estimó el percentil 95 a través de la técnica de remuestreo paramétrico. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que solamente hay dos regiones ciclogénicas en los dos intervalos de estudio, es decir, no hubo cambio en el número de regiones de un periodo a otro. Un segundo resultado es que existen diferencias estadísticamente significativas en la ubicación de los centroides de las regiones de génesis estimadas, sugiriendo un impacto debido al cambio climático de acuerdo con los datos analizados.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Several climate models suggest that the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones will change at the end of the 21st century, as consequence of global warming. Several scientific reports have described how global warming affects the intensity of tropical cyclones. However, little research has been done on the impact of global warming on cyclogenesis in different ocean basins. In this work, the number of cyclogenetic regions and their corresponding centroids are estimated in the North Atlantic Ocean basin for the intervals 1951-1975 versus 1976-2013 and 1951-1989 versus 1990-2013 through a finite Gaussian mixture model, to determine whether significant changes exist. In this study, the change from one interval to another will be attributed to climate change. The parameter estimation of the probability density function (fdp) of the mixture components was done using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm (EM). The fdp were compared using the Bhattacharyya´s distance and the 95th percentile was estimated using the technique of parametric bootstrap. The results show that there are only two cyclogenic regions in each of the intervals that is no increase or decrease in the number of regions. A second result indicates that there are significant differences in the centroid&#8217;s locations from one interval to another, suggestion an impact due to climate change according to the analyzed data.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos de mezclas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[verosimilitud]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[regiones ciclogénicas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mixture models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[likelihood]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[cyclogenic regions]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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