<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-2422</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnología y ciencias del agua]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnol. cienc. agua]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-2422</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Coordinación de Comunicación, Participación e Información]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-24222016000500135</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Formulación simplificada de un índice de sequía, empleando una distribución de probabilidad mezclada]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Simplified Desing of a Drought Index, Using a Mixed Probability Function]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gutiérrez-López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alfonso]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vargas-Baecheler]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Reséndiz-Torres]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cruz-Paz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ivonne]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro Centro de Investigaciones del Agua ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Querétaro Querétaro]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Concepción Facultad de Ingeniería ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro Centro de Investigaciones del Agua ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Querétaro Querétaro]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Santiago de Querétaro Querétaro]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>7</volume>
<numero>5</numero>
<fpage>135</fpage>
<lpage>149</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-24222016000500135&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-24222016000500135&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-24222016000500135&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: En la actualidad, muchos son los procedimientos para caracterizar el fenómeno de las sequías, la mayoría de ellos se basa en el Índice Estandarizado de Sequía (SPI), el cual se calcula a partir de registros históricos de precipitación para un cierto periodo de estudio. Esta serie de datos se estandariza empleando diversas distribuciones de probabilidad, lo que permite el análisis de los impactos de las sequías a distintas escalas de tiempo. Lo complejo de este procedimiento es el uso de diversas distribuciones de probabilidad y que ninguno de sus parámetros tiene un significado físico. Este artículo presenta una metodología para el cálculo simplificado del índice SPI, con base en la hipótesis de que una serie de eventos ocurre de forma aleatoria en el tiempo. Se emplea un proceso de Poisson para explicar el número de días de lluvia y una distribución exponencial para caracterizar las láminas medias de precipitación. Buscando una explicación física de los parámetros de dicha distribución de probabilidad mezclada (Poisson-exponencial) se correlacionan de modo directo con el índice SPI, obteniendo un índice modificado que simplemente se calcula contando el número de días de lluvia del periodo, representando de manera sencilla y confiable la condición de sequía. La metodología se aplica en ocho estados del norte de la república mexicana.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Nowadays, there are many procedures to characterize the phenomenon of drought; most of them are based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which is calculated based on historical records of rainfall for a certain period of study. This set of data is standardized using various probability distributions, which enables the analysis of the impacts of droughts at different time scales. The complexity of this process is the use of various probability distributions and that none of its parameters have a physical meaning. This paper presents a simplified methodology for calculating the SPI, based on the hypothesis that a series of events occur randomly in time. A Poisson process is used to explain the number of raining days and an exponential distribution to characterize the mean rainfall high. Looking for a physical explanation of the parameters of the distribution of mixed probability (Poisson-exponential), they correlate directly with the SPI index, obtaining a modified index is calculated simply by counting the number of raining days in the period; representing a simple and trustworthy way the condition of drought. The methodology is applied in eight northern states of the Mexican Republic.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[sequía]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[distribución de Poisson]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[régimen de precipitación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[índice estandarizado de precipitación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Drought]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Poisson distribution]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[rainfall regimen]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[standardized precipitation index]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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