<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-1132</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de ciencias forestales]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-1132</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-11322026000100095</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.29298/rmcf.v17i93.1594</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Distribución potencial de Pinus cembroides Zucc. ante escenarios del Proyecto de Intercomparación de Modelos Acoplados en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Potential distribution of Pinus cembroides Zucc. under scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez-Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Julio Nemorio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cavazos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Tereza]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gárate-Escamilla]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Homero Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Himmelsbach]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Wibke]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alanís Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yerena Yamallel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Israel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cuéllar-Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gerardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León Facultad de Ciencias Forestales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>17</volume>
<numero>93</numero>
<fpage>95</fpage>
<lpage>121</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-11322026000100095&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-11322026000100095&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-11322026000100095&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Pinus cembroides es una conífera piñonera resistente a condiciones secas y está ampliamente distribuida en zonas áridas y semiáridas de México, por lo que es ideal para evaluar los impactos del cambio climático en los bosques de coníferas. Se evaluaron los impactos de ese fenómeno sobre la distribución potencial de P. cembroides en México, a partir de dos escenarios climáticos de la Fase 6 del Proyecto de Intercomparación de Modelos Acoplados (CMIP6): SSP2-4.5 (incremento proyectado de 2.1 a 3.5 °C en la temperatura media hacia finales del siglo XXI) y SSP5-8.5 (incremento proyectado de 3.3 a 5.7 °C). La modelación se realizó con el algoritmo de máxima entropía (MaxEnt), empleando 1 696 registros de P. cembroides y 19 variables bioclimáticas de CHELSA v2.1. Las variables con mayor contribución fueron la temperatura del aire en el trimestre más seco (60.9 %) y en el trimestre más húmedo (28.9 %). Bajo las condiciones climáticas actuales, solo 6.3 % de las regiones montañosas de la Sierra Madre Oriental y la Sierra Madre Occidental mostraron alta idoneidad. Los cambios en la distribución futura se proyectaron mediante un Ensamble Multi-Modelo (EMM) del CMIP6 en el corto plazo (2021-2040), mediano plazo (2041-2060), largo plazo (2061-2080) y finales del siglo XXI (2081-2100). En ambos escenarios, la distribución potencial disminuye hasta ~10 % del área actual a finales del siglo XXI, limitada a zonas más elevadas y húmedas de baja a media idoneidad en la Sierra de Juárez y la Sierra Madre Oriental.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Pinus cembroides is a piñon conifer resistant to dry conditions and is widely distributed in arid and semi-arid areas of Mexico, making it ideal for assessing the impacts of climate change on conifer forests. The impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Pinus cembroides in Mexico was assessed, considering two climatic scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6): SSP2-4.5 (projected increase of 2.1 to 3.5 °C in mean temperature by the end of the twenty-first century) and SSP5-8.5 (projected increase of 3.3 to 5.7 °C). Modeling was based on the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt), using 1 696 records of P. cembroides and 19 bioclimatic variables from CHELSA v2.1. The variables with the highest contributions were the temperature of the driest quarter (60.9 %) and the wettest quarter (28.9 %). Under the current climate conditions, only 6.3 % of mountainous regions in the Sierra Madre Oriental and Sierra Madre Occidental exhibited high suitability. Future changes in distribution were projected using a CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) in four periods: near-term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060), far-term (2061-2080), and end of XXI century (2081-2100). In both scenarios, the potential distribution is projected to contract to ~10 % of its current extent by the end of the 21st century, limited to higher and wetter areas of low to medium suitability in Sierra de Juárez and Sierra Madre Oriental.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[CHELSA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[CMIP6]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[distribución de especies]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos de distribución]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[CHELSA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[CMIP6]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[species distribution]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[distribution models]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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