<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-0934</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de ciencias agrícolas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-0934</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-09342026000100112</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.29312/remexca.v17i1.3941</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Fluctuaciones y riesgos de los cultivos básicos en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Fluctuations and risks of staple crops in Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Domínguez-López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Dora Eloísa]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González-Estrada]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Adrián]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez-Damián]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Miguel Ángel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Reyna-Izaguirre]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Diana América]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Chapingo Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Texcoco Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Colegio de Posgraduados  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Texcoco Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>17</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-09342026000100112&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-09342026000100112&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-09342026000100112&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen La producción agrícola es muy volátil, debido a factores climáticos, económicos y políticos, lo que genera riesgo e incertidumbre en los productores y en las instituciones. Esa volatilidad tiene costos económicos significativos y en los eventos extremos, puede significar pérdidas considerables. Los objetivos de esta investigación fueron identificar las fluctuaciones de la producción de los cultivos básicos en México (maíz, frijol, trigo y arroz), durante el periodo 1993-2022, así como sus patrones cíclicos y regularidades empíricas. Se aplicaron modelos econométricos de series de tiempo, el filtro dinámico Hodrick-Prescott y las pruebas de estacionariedad y de cointegración. Los ciclos de producción de los cultivos básicos son de duración media y exhiben una correlación débilmente negativa con el producto interno bruto total. El maíz y el trigo presentan menor variabilidad, mientras que el frijol y el arroz, una mayor. Esas fluctuaciones aumentan los riesgos y los costos de producción. Con el fin de fortalecer la seguridad alimentaria, se recomienda instrumentar políticas de aseguramiento y cobertura contra el riesgo, así como estrategias que mitiguen la volatilidad en la producción.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Agricultural production is highly volatile, due to climatic, economic, and political factors, generating risk and uncertainty for producers and institutions. Such volatility has high economic costs and, in extreme events, can mean considerable losses. This research aimed to identify fluctuations in the production of staple crops in Mexico (corn, beans, wheat, and rice) during the 1993-2022 period, as well as their cyclical patterns and empirical regularities. Econometric time series models, the Hodrick-Prescott dynamic filter, and stationarity and cointegration tests were applied. The production cycles of staple crops are of medium length and exhibit a weakly negative correlation with total GDP. Corn and wheat have less variability, whereas beans and rice have greater variability. Such fluctuations increase risks and production costs. In order to strengthen food security, it is recommended to implement risk insurance and coverage policies, as well as strategies that mitigate production volatility.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ciclos de la producción de cultivos básicos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estacionariedad y cointegración]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[filtro dinámico Hodrick-Prescott]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Hodrick-Prescott dynamic filter]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[staple crop production cycles]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[stationarity and cointegration]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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