<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-0934</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de ciencias agrícolas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-0934</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-09342023000200295</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.29312/remexca.v14i2.2933</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelación de predictores de precio nominal vs real aplicados a maíz, trigo y cebada en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Modeling of nominal vs real price predictors applied to corn, wheat and barley in Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez-Damián]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Miguel Ángel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Brambila-Paz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José de Jesús]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Colegio de Postgraduados  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>14</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>295</fpage>
<lpage>301</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-09342023000200295&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-09342023000200295&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-09342023000200295&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En la producción agrícola, el desfase en el tiempo entre el momento que se asignan recursos y se obtienen recursos hace necesario generar una predicción en el momento t (siembra), del precio vigente en t + j (venta). Sin embargo, en presencia de inflación, es posible que el tomador de decisiones opte por hacer una predicción en términos nominales o bien descuente dicha inflación. Con precios mensuales, bajo un enfoque de series de tiempo y tras ajustar un modelo IMA (1, 1), se investigó esta disyuntiva para el caso del maíz, trigo y cebada en México. Después de comparar seis criterios de bondad de ajuste para cada alternativa de predicción en cada cultivo para el periodo analizado 2002 a 2019, se encuentra que el empleo de datos nominales o reales es indiferente en la construcción del predictor de precio.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In agricultural production, the lag in time between the time resources are allocated and resources are obtained makes it necessary to generate a prediction at time t (sowing), of the current price in t + j (sale). However, in the presence of inflation, the decision maker may choose to make a prediction in nominal terms or discount such inflation. With monthly prices, under a time series approach and after fitting an IMA (1, 1) model, this dilemma was studied for the case of corn, wheat and barley in Mexico. After comparing six goodness-of-fit criteria for each prediction alternative in each crop for the analyzed period 2002 to 2019, it is found that the use of nominal or real data is indifferent in the construction of the price predictor.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[bondad de ajuste]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo arima]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[raíz unitaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[arima model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[goodness of fit]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[unit root]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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