<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-0934</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de ciencias agrícolas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-0934</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-09342019000601325</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.29312/remexca.v10i6.1688</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Disminución de las horas frío como efecto del cambio climático en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Cold hours decrease as a result of climate change in Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Medina-García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Guillermo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Grageda-Grageda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ruiz-Corral]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Ariel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Casas-Flores]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Israel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez-Moreno]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mora-Orozco]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Celia de la]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias Campo Experimental Zacatecas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Calera Zacatecas]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias Campo Experimental Costa de Hermosillo ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Hermosillo Sonora]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guadalajara Centro Universitario de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Zapopan Jalisco]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias Campo Experimental Pabellón ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Pabellón de Arteaga Aguascalientes]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias Campo Experimental Centro-Altos de Jalisco ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Tepatitlán de Morelos Jalisco]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>10</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<fpage>1325</fpage>
<lpage>1337</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-09342019000601325&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-09342019000601325&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-09342019000601325&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En México los frutales caducifolios se cultivan en el centro y norte del país donde la temperatura, al final del otoño y durante el invierno, es baja para que ocurra una defoliación de los árboles y presenten un letargo durante el invierno. El calentamiento global, como efecto del cambio climático, tiene el potencial de reducir el frío disponible en el invierno y afectar la producción de los árboles frutales caducifolios. El objetivo de este trabajo fue conocer el efecto del cambio climático, sobre la acumulación de horas frío en el periodo de invierno. Se realizó un análisis histórico sobre la variación del número de horas frío (HF) y un análisis similar en los escenarios climáticos 2030, 2050 y 2070 en los RCP 4.5 y 8.5. Tanto en el análisis histórico como en los escenarios se encontraron efectos del cambio climático, el cual será desfavorable para los frutales de clima templado. El calentamiento global provocará una disminución de la superficie con acumulación de 600 a 800 HF de 11.7, 25.8 y 33% en los escenarios climáticos 2030, 2050 y 2070 del RCP 4.5, respectivamente y hasta 99.5% la superficie con acumulación de 800 a 900 HF en el clima 2070 del RCP 8.5. En cambio, la superficie con poca acumulación de HF (50 a 200) aumentará 11.5, 29.3 y 36.4% en los escenarios climáticos 2030, 2050 y 2070 del RCP 4.5, respectivamente. Los frutales caducifolios en el futuro se verán limitado por la disminución de HF, en las áreas con mayor acumulación de frío, de igual manera pueden ser afectados los cereales de otoño-invierno.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In Mexico, deciduous fruit trees are grown in the center and north of the country where the temperature, at the end of autumn and during winter, is low enough for defoliation of trees to occur and lethargy occur during winter. Global warming, as an effect of climate change, has the potential to reduce the cold available in the winter and affect the production of deciduous fruit trees. The objective of this work was to know the effect of climate change, on the accumulation of cold hours in the winter period. A historical analysis was carried out on the variation of the number of cold hours (HF) and a similar analysis in the climatic scenarios 2030, 2050 and 2070 in the 4.5 and 8.5 CPR. Both the historical analysis and the scenarios were the effects of climate change, which will be unfavorable for the cultivation of fruit trees with a temperate climate. Global warming will cause a decrease in the surface with accumulation of 600 to 800 HF of 11.7, 25.8 and 33% in climatic scenarios 2030, 2050 and 2070 of 4.5 CPR, respectively and up to 99.5% of the surface with accumulation of 800 to 900 HF in the 2070 climate of 8.5 CPR. On the other hand, the area with little accumulation of HF (50 to 200) will increase 11.5, 29.3 and 36.4% in the 2030, 2050 and 2070 climatic scenarios of the 4.5 CPR, respectively. The cultivation of deciduous fruit trees in the future will be limited by the decrease in HF, mainly in areas with greater accumulation of cold, in the same way can be affected the crops of the autumn-winter cycle such as cereals.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[calentamiento global]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[frutales caducifolios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tendencia histórica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[RCP]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[CPR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[deciduous fruit trees]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[global warming]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[historical trend]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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