<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-0934</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de ciencias agrícolas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-0934</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-09342014001401939</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Impacto potencial del cambio climático en la región productora de durazno en Zacatecas, México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Potential impact of climate change on the peach producing region in Zacatecas, Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Medina-García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Guillermo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ruiz-Corral]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Ariel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zegbe]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jorge A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soria Ruiz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jesús]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez Moreno]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Díaz Padilla]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gabriel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,INIFAP Campo Experimental Zacatecas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Calera Zacatecas]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,INIFAP Campo Experimental Centro ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Tepatitlán Jalisco]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,INIFAP Sitio Experimental Metepec ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Zinacantepec Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,INIFAP Campo Experimental Pabellón ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Pabellón de Arteaga Aguascalientes]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,INIFAP Campo Experimental Cotaxtla ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín de Bravo Veracruz]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2014</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2014</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>5</volume>
<numero>spe10</numero>
<fpage>1939</fpage>
<lpage>1950</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-09342014001401939&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-09342014001401939&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-09342014001401939&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: En el estado de Zacatecas se localiza la región cultivada con durazno criollo bajo condiciones de temporal más importante de México con una superficie establecida de 12 025 ha. Actualmente a nivel mundial es aceptado que globalmente existe un fenómeno de calentamiento atmosférico global y que en parte ha sido consecuencia del aumento en la concentración de los llamados "gases de efecto invernadero". Se realizó un análisis retrospectivo con índices de cambio climático para la zona duraznera de temporal. Se utilizaron anomalías de temperatura para el período 2011-2060, estimadas con un ensamble de 10 modelos de circulación general, para generar mapas de temperatura futura a partir de la climatología de referencia 1961-2003. Con éstos mapas de temperatura se obtuvieron mapas de horas frío para cinco escenarios futuros. El análisis retrospectivo mostró tendencia en el incremento de la temperatura máxima y mínima y como consecuencia un decremento del frío en el periodo invernal. Con los escenarios futuros de la acumulación de horas frío se cuantificó la disminución promedio de las horas, así como la disminución de la superficie de las áreas con mayor acumulación de frío y el aumento de las áreas con menor acumulación de frío en las zonas de producción. Los resultados evidencian el decremento del frío invernal; sin embargo, dado que los duraznos cultivados son de mediano a bajo requerimiento de frío, se considera que a corto y mediano plazo no habrá impacto de la disminución de las horas frío sobre el crecimiento y desarrollo del durazno. No obstante, a mediano plazo será conveniente la introducción y evaluación de variedades con bajo requerimiento de frío como 'Victoria Temprano', 'Fred' y 'Michele'. A largo plazo, habrá que buscar nichos con mayor acumulación de frío o variedades con bajo requerimiento de frío.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: In the State of Zacatecas is located the most important region planted with native peach under rainfed conditions of Mexico with a surface of 12 025 ha. Currently, worldwide is accepted that globally there is a phenomenon of global atmospheric warming and that in part is due to the increase in the concentration of the so-called "greenhouse gases". A retrospective analysis of climate change indices for peach under rainfed was conducted. We used temperature anomalies for the period 2011-2060, estimated with an assembly of10 global climate models (GCMs) for generating maps of future temperatures using the climate of reference from 1961 to 2003. With these maps of temperature, we obtained maps of cold hours for five future scenarios. The retrospective analysis showed a trend in the increase of the maximum and minimum temperature and consequently a decrease of cold in the winter period. With future scenarios of cold hours the average hours and decreased surface areas with higher cold accumulation and increase in areas with lower accumulation of cold production areas decrease was quantified. The results show the decline ofthe winter cold; however, since peaches are grown medium to low cold requirement, it is considered that in the short to médium term there will be no impact of the decline in cold hours on the growth and development of peach. However, in the medium term it will be convenient the introduction and evaluation of varieties with low cold requirement such as 'Victoria Temprano', 'Fred' and 'Michele'. In the long term well have to find niches with higher accumulation of cold or varieties with low cold requirement.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Prunus pérsica L. Batsch.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[calentamiento global]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[horas frío]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Prunus pérsica L. Batsch.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[cold hours]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[global warming]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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