<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-0705</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Nova scientia]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Nova scientia]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-0705</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de La Salle Bajío A. C., Coordinación de Investigación]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-07052017000200551</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21640/ns.v9i19.953</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Pronóstico productivo de la avena forrajera de temporal por efecto del cambio climático en el noroeste de Chihuahua, México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Yield forecast of forage oat due to climate change in the northwest of Chihuahua, Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villazón Bustillos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Daniel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rubio Arias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Héctor]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ochoa Rivero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jesús M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mora]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Celia de la]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>9</volume>
<numero>19</numero>
<fpage>551</fpage>
<lpage>567</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-07052017000200551&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-07052017000200551&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-07052017000200551&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El cambio climático puede afectar la productividad de los cultivos en una región determinada. El objetivo fue identificar la variabilidad en la producción de avena forrajera (Avena sativa L.) de temporal utilizando una función estocástica y analizar sus relaciones con la temperatura y precipitación, ante escenarios de cambio climático en la región noroeste de Chihuahua, México. Se obtuvo información estadística de 13 años (2001-2013) en las estaciones meteorológicas de los municipios de Bachíniva y Namiquipa utilizando la información de julio, agosto y septiembre, en cuyo periodo se concentra alrededor del 80% de la precipitación anual. Se tomó información del modelo HadCM3 (Modelo acoplado del Centro Hadley versión 3, 2001) que describe el comportamiento de variables climáticas bajo escenarios de emisión de contaminantes A2 y B2 para los años 2050 y 2080. Los cambios en las variables climáticas en el corto plazo (2050) se esperan con un aumento tanto en la temperatura como en la precipitación, lo que permite en el caso de Bachíniva mejorar la producción de avena de 3.57 t/ha a 8.11 t/ha bajo en escenario de emisión de contaminantes A2. A largo plazo (2080) se espera un incremento permanente en la temperatura y sin importar que tanto mejore la precipitación, esto provocara que en las actuales regiones productoras de avena no se logren desarrollar los cultivos para su cosecha.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Climate change can affect crop productivity in a particular region. The objective was to identify the variability in the production of dryland forage oat (Avena sativa L.) using a stochastic function and analyze their relationship with temperature and precipitation as affected by sceneries of climate change in the northwestern region of Chihuahua, Mexico. It was obtained 13 years of statistical information (2001-2013) at meteorological stations in the municipalities of Bachiniva and Namiquipa, using information on July, August and September months, where it is concentrated about 80% of annual precipitation. Information was taken from HADCM3 (2001) model that describes the behavior of climatic variables under pollutant emission scenarios A2 and B2 on the years 2050 and 2080. The changes in climate variables in the short term (2050) was taken and it is expected to increase both in temperature and precipitation, allowing in the case of Bachiniva improve the production of oats from 3.57 t/ha to 8.11 t/ha under pollutant emission scenario A2. In the long term (2080) a permanent increase in temperature is expected, and no matter how much precipitation improve, this will cause in the current oat producing regions fail to develop crops for harvest.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[función estocástica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Avena sativa L.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[producción materia seca]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[stochastic function]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Avena sativa L.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[dry matter production]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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